--- title: "DRAGON JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DRAGON JOKER ($307.12) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 68.72% over 1,413 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DRAGON JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DRAGON JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker?window=all) Price · $307.12 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 68.72% · 1,413 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 214 openings · below min 7 days · 63.67% ±18.71 1,186 openings 30 days · 68.72% ±17.83 1,413 openings since tracking started · 68.72% ±17.83 1,413 openings 8.0% 47.5% 87.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker?window=24h) | 214 | 44.46% ±35.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker?window=7d) | 1,186 | 63.67% ±18.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker) | 1,413 | 68.72% ±17.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon-joker?window=all) | 1,413 | 68.72% ±17.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $313 $6,191 19.77x 2026-11-07 03:21 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $313 $6,191 19.77x 2026-11-07 01:17 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $313 $6,191 19.77x 2026-11-06 19:15 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $313 $6,191 19.77x 2026-11-06 19:13 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $307 $6,040 19.70x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $307 $6,040 19.70x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $307 $6,040 19.70x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $306 $6,040 19.73x 2026-11-10 21:47 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $307 $6,040 19.70x 2026-11-10 10:36 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $307 $6,040 19.70x 2026-11-10 09:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=dragon-joker) [AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [HAWKYWINNER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HAWKYWINNER) $306 $18.15 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $307 $340 1.11x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) Hidden $307 $0.65 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $307 $2.94 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [HAWKYWINNER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HAWKYWINNER) $307 $18.15 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $306 $0.91 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $306 $2.62 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $306 $21.90 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $306 $6.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC [MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $306 $0.91 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $6,191 (19.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 68.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $68.72 on average: an expected loss of $31.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt