---
title: "DRAGON case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DRAGON ($3.88) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 35 items with odds, observed 83.08% over 53.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DRAGON](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DRAGON

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon?window=all)

Price · $3.88

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.39 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.08% · 53.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 25.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.24% ±12.72 6,081 openings

7 days · 83.42% ±4.78 43.2K openings

30 days · 83.08% ±4.30 53.4K openings

since tracking started · 83.08% ±4.30 53.4K openings

69.0% 82.3% 95.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.49% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.78% – 87.38%, 53,372 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon?window=24h) | 6,081 | 82.24% ±12.7 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon?window=7d) | 43.2K | 83.42% ±4.78 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon) | 53.4K | 83.08% ±4.30 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dragon?window=all) | 53.4K | 83.08% ±4.30 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,040 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 11,111 | $327 | 0.9% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $96.47 | 0.6% | 5 | 10.7 | 0.47× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $41.56 | 0.6% | 27 | 26.7 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $22.32 | 0.1% | 5 | 9.1 | 0.55× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $21.59 | 0.8% | 73 | 64.1 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $20.75 | 0.7% | 51 | 58.7 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $20.36 | 0.7% | 45 | 58.7 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $17.89 | 0.1% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $17.08 | 0.1% | 22 | 11.7 | 1.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $14.98 | 0.1% | 303 | 13.3 | 22.70× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $11.96 | 16.6% | 2,111 | 2509.7 | 0.84× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $7.01 | 3.1% | 387 | 806.7 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $6.91 | 2.4% | 344 | 633.2 | 0.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $6.67 | 3.4% | 531 | 926.8 | 0.57× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $6.33 | 3.6% | 547 | 1029.3 | 0.53× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $6.24 | 3.4% | 573 | 998.9 | 0.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $6.02 | 3.6% | 656 | 1073.6 | 0.61× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $5.63 | 7.8% | 904 | 2520.4 | 0.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $4.67 | 4.6% | 1,541 | 1778.3 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $4.61 | 4.6% | 1,485 | 1824.8 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $4.37 | 4.9% | 1,530 | 2030.8 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $3.63 | 4.0% | 1,266 | 2017.0 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $2.99 | 2.4% | 1,000 | 1456.4 | 0.69× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $2.67 | 5.1% | 3,336 | 3478.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $2.58 | 2.5% | 1,009 | 1728.7 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.48 | 2.5% | 1,148 | 1826.9 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $2.33 | 2.7% | 1,247 | 2064.5 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $2.22 | 1.5% | 766 | 1201.7 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $2.17 | 1.5% | 804 | 1240.7 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $2.03 | 1.5% | 827 | 1362.4 | 0.61× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 13 | $1.89 | 4.2% | 4,037 | 3993.9 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $1.03 | 2.9% | 5,227 | 5091.0 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $0.92 | 2.7% | 5,463 | 5326.4 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 11.6% | $0.63 | 2.2% | 6,434 | 6197.2 | 1.04× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/dragon`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=dragon)

[MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $0.92 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $1.89 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $0.63 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $0.63 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[MP9 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $1.03 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $0.92 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $2.14 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $0.92 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $3.88 $4.41 1.14x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) [minitrader33](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/minitrader33) $3.88 $2.67 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.88 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.88 | 87.81% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.88 | 87.63% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.88 | 87.43% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.88 | 87.07% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.88 | 87.60% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.88 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.88 | 87.89% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.88 | 87.35% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.88 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.88 | 87.71% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.88 | 87.78% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.88 | 87.41% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.88 | 87.19% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.88 | 87.43% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.88 | 87.40% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.88 | 87.80% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.1% violet 14.6% classified 6.1% restricted 28.6% Legendary 1.7% #8847ff 3.2% blue 26.2% Rare 2.6% pink 7.5% Consumer Grade 9.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt