--- title: "DREAM MEADOWS JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DREAM MEADOWS JOKER ($479.26) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.05% over 1,006 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DREAM MEADOWS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DREAM MEADOWS JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker?window=all) Price · $479.26 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.05% · 1,006 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 269 openings · below min 7 days · 703 openings · below min 30 days · 89.05% ±8.99 1,006 openings since tracking started · 89.05% ±8.99 1,006 openings 64.0% 86.0% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker?window=24h) | 269 | 79.60% ±14.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker?window=7d) | 703 | 95.86% ±11.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker) | 1,006 | 89.05% ±8.99 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows-joker?window=all) | 1,006 | 89.05% ±8.99 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $479 $2,879 6.01x 2026-11-03 07:44 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $475 $2,830 5.96x 2026-11-04 00:45 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $475 $2,830 5.96x 2026-11-03 19:22 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $475 $2,830 5.96x 2026-11-03 17:52 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $475 $2,830 5.96x 2026-11-03 17:51 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $470 $2,826 6.02x 2026-11-07 03:21 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [amarilo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/amarilo) $473 $2,826 5.97x 2026-11-05 16:56 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $475 $2,824 5.94x 2026-11-04 11:19 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $475 $2,824 5.94x 2026-11-04 11:18 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $468 $2,821 6.03x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=dream-meadows-joker) [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $467 $32.46 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $464 $30.96 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $464 $48.98 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) Hidden $464 $82.85 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P90 | Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) Hidden $464 $30.92 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $464 $156 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $464 $796 1.72x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $467 $161 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $464 $156 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $464 $204 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,879 (6.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.05 on average: an expected loss of $10.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt