---
title: "DREAM MEADOWS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "DREAM MEADOWS ($57.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 86.38% over 12.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DREAM MEADOWS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DREAM MEADOWS

A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows?window=all)

Price · $57.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $50.31 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.38% · 12.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.77% ±2.75 2,211 openings

7 days · 86.54% ±1.30 10.3K openings

30 days · 86.38% ±1.20 12.2K openings

since tracking started · 86.38% ±1.20 12.2K openings

82.5% 85.8% 89.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.82% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.18% – 87.58%, 12,164 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows?window=24h) | 2,211 | 85.77% ±2.75 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows?window=7d) | 10.3K | 86.54% ±1.30 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows) | 12.2K | 86.38% ±1.20 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dream-meadows?window=all) | 12.2K | 86.38% ±1.20 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,821 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,003 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,488 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $934 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $806 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $609 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.37× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $393 | 0.1% | 8 | 1.2 | 6.58× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $278 | 0.1% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.29× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $205 | 2.6% | 81 | 77.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $160 | 0.4% | 10 | 13.4 | 0.75× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $159 | 2.6% | 118 | 101.0 | 1.17× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $132 | 5.8% | 238 | 270.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $101 | 5.8% | 324 | 351.6 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-well-worn) | 1 in 137 | $92.75 | 1.3% | 47 | 88.8 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $92.38 | 1.4% | 47 | 90.0 | 0.52× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $82.70 | 5.8% | 378 | 430.6 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $66.50 | 5.8% | 490 | 536.5 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $58.95 | 5.8% | 558 | 604.6 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $56.55 | 7.1% | 763 | 770.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $55.46 | 2.7% | 151 | 302.9 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $53.02 | 2.8% | 219 | 327.2 | 0.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $49.30 | 6.7% | 835 | 834.5 | 1.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $48.97 | 6.7% | 881 | 837.0 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $43.99 | 2.7% | 236 | 380.8 | 0.62× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $36.27 | 1.2% | 134 | 195.9 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $35.91 | 1.7% | 204 | 284.7 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $35.65 | 1.7% | 198 | 296.8 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $34.71 | 5.4% | 976 | 959.8 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $34.10 | 3.3% | 423 | 598.5 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $33.91 | 3.0% | 392 | 547.4 | 0.72× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $33.20 | 1.2% | 159 | 217.8 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $33.10 | 1.7% | 263 | 318.7 | 0.83× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $32.64 | 1.8% | 246 | 335.8 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $32.16 | 1.8% | 236 | 343.1 | 0.69× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $31.08 | 1.2% | 163 | 243.3 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $28.80 | 1.8% | 276 | 386.8 | 0.71× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $28.66 | 1.3% | 195 | 267.6 | 0.73× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $28.54 | 1.3% | 182 | 273.7 | 0.66× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $28.54 | 1.3% | 228 | 268.8 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $28.31 | 1.3% | 192 | 271.3 | 0.71× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $26.26 | 1.4% | 220 | 327.2 | 0.67× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/dream-meadows`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $57.50 $953 16.57x 2026-11-08 19:50 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [BEST CODE: DREXAT ( 20%)](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BEST%20CODE%3A%20DREXAT%20%28%2020%25%29) $57.50 $622 10.82x 2026-11-09 11:01 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [BEST CODE: DREXAT ( 20%)](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BEST%20CODE%3A%20DREXAT%20%28%2020%25%29) $57.50 $617 10.73x 2026-11-09 11:02 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $57.50 $613 10.66x 2026-11-08 04:17 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $57.50 $613 10.66x 2026-11-07 16:21 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [dviruezmartin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dviruezmartin) $57.50 $609 10.58x 2026-11-11 00:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=dream-meadows)

[M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $57.50 $33.39 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $57.50 $34.71 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.50 $64.53 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $57.50 $34.76 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $57.50 $101 1.76x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $57.50 $34.71 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $57.50 $33.39 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $57.50 $33.39 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $57.50 $32.23 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $57.50 $69.39 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $57.50 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $57.50 | 88.00% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $57.50 | 87.93% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $57.50 | 87.88% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $57.50 | 87.80% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $57.50 | 87.97% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $57.50 | 87.85% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $57.50 | 87.79% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $57.50 | 87.86% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $57.50 | 87.78% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $57.50 | 87.86% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $57.50 | 87.82% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $57.50 | 87.81% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $57.50 | 87.90% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $57.50 | 87.85% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $57.50 | 87.96% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.50 | 87.77% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 14.5% gold 6.9% Ancient 2.9% sunny 2.2% rare 5.9% blue 3.5% red 21.2% classified 11.0% restricted 12.8% pink 13.9% Classified 2.0% violet 3.2% best hit $953 (16.57x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt