--- title: "EDGE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "EDGE JOKER ($468.77) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.92% over 111 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EDGE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EDGE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker?window=all) Price · $468.77 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.92% · 111 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 108 openings · below min 30 days · 111 openings · below min since tracking started · 111 openings · below min -0.5% 90.0% 180.5% **Small sample.** 111 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker?window=24h) | 28 | 76.37% ±103.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker?window=7d) | 108 | 81.74% ±53.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker) | 111 | 83.92% ±52.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge-joker?window=all) | 111 | 83.92% ±52.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $472 $7,097 15.02x 2026-11-08 03:04 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $471 $7,029 14.93x 2026-11-08 03:03 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $471 $7,029 14.93x 2026-11-08 03:03 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $461 $6,866 14.88x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $469 $2,066 4.41x 2026-11-03 17:49 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $471 $2,038 4.33x 2026-11-08 03:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $472 $801 1.70x 2026-11-05 03:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $472 $801 1.70x 2026-11-05 03:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $471 $799 1.70x 2026-11-08 03:03 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $471 $651 1.38x 2026-11-08 03:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=edge-joker) [AWP | Asiimov weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $465 $115 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $465 $33.20 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $461 $110 0.24x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) Hidden $461 $7.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) Hidden $461 $141 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) Hidden $461 $7.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-battle-scarred) Hidden $461 $161 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) Hidden $461 $30.29 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $461 $33.56 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) Hidden $461 $104 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $7,097 (15.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.92 on average: an expected loss of $16.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt