---
title: "EDGE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EDGE ($37.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 57 items with odds, observed 89.17% over 3,068 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EDGE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EDGE

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge?window=all)

Price · $37.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $32.81 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.17% · 3,068 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.41% ±15.07 343 openings

7 days · 89.63% ±5.86 2,310 openings

30 days · 89.17% ±5.09 3,068 openings

since tracking started · 89.17% ±5.09 3,068 openings

72.5% 88.3% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge?window=24h) | 343 | 88.41% ±15.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge?window=7d) | 2,310 | 89.63% ±5.86 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge) | 3,068 | 89.17% ±5.09 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/edge?window=all) | 3,068 | 89.17% ±5.09 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,068 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $6,939 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 14,286 | $2,003 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $787 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $651 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $588 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $273 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $216 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $209 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $207 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $192 | 0.6% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Well-Worn) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $187 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $172 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $161 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 769 | $152 | 0.6% | 9 | 4.0 | 2.26× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $146 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $145 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $139 | 2.1% | 4 | 15.0 | 0.27× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $110 | 2.6% | 22 | 24.2 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $100 | 7.8% | 75 | 78.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $94.65 | 3.1% | 18 | 32.5 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $91.83 | 4.5% | 32 | 49.7 | 0.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $82.41 | 10.3% | 145 | 125.5 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $75.12 | 2.3% | 27 | 31.3 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $70.60 | 2.5% | 25 | 35.6 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $64.85 | 2.7% | 29 | 42.0 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $64.31 | 2.7% | 33 | 42.6 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $53.10 | 3.9% | 47 | 73.0 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $52.50 | 3.9% | 43 | 74.6 | 0.58× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $49.30 | 3.9% | 58 | 78.8 | 0.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $49.23 | 3.9% | 63 | 79.2 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $44.77 | 7.7% | 154 | 173.6 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $33.60 | 3.7% | 99 | 111.1 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $32.89 | 0.6% | 12 | 19.0 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $30.29 | 1.3% | 26 | 43.9 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $26.52 | 0.8% | 16 | 32.2 | 0.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $25.50 | 3.0% | 118 | 116.6 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $23.96 | 0.7% | 18 | 29.5 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $22.06 | 0.9% | 33 | 41.7 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $21.41 | 0.8% | 29 | 39.6 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $20.75 | 0.7% | 23 | 35.9 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $20.36 | 1.5% | 59 | 76.4 | 0.77× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $20.24 | 0.8% | 22 | 37.4 | 0.59× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $19.78 | 0.9% | 26 | 44.2 | 0.59× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $19.71 | 0.9% | 30 | 44.5 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $19.34 | 1.0% | 33 | 50.0 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $17.64 | 0.6% | 23 | 34.1 | 0.68× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $14.59 | 0.7% | 34 | 51.2 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $13.39 | 0.7% | 38 | 55.8 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.38 | 2.0% | 140 | 150.9 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $12.66 | 0.7% | 34 | 54.3 | 0.63× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.10 | 1.9% | 179 | 157.1 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $11.17 | 0.7% | 33 | 64.4 | 0.51× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas) | 1 in 17 | $7.97 | 1.5% | 186 | 185.6 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.89 | 0.9% | 80 | 121.2 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $7.85 | 0.9% | 71 | 117.8 | 0.60× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $7.44 | 1.4% | 211 | 190.8 | 1.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $6.98 | 1.3% | 170 | 189.0 | 0.90× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/edge`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 $786 20.95x 2026-11-08 18:23 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $37.50 $632 16.86x 2026-11-07 01:25 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $37.50 $603 16.09x 2026-11-04 13:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=edge)

[Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $37.50 $25.50 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) Hidden $37.50 $54.83 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.50 $19.60 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.50 $19.72 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $37.50 $25.52 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $37.50 $100 2.68x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $37.50 $13.38 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $37.50 $52.80 1.41x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $37.50 $52.80 1.41x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $37.50 $12.10 0.32x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $37.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $37.50 | 87.35% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $37.50 | 87.43% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $37.50 | 87.56% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $37.50 | 87.69% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $37.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $37.50 | 87.47% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $37.50 | 87.44% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $37.50 | 87.28% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $37.50 | 87.48% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $37.50 | 87.42% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $37.50 | 87.40% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $37.50 | 87.57% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $37.50 | 87.32% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $37.50 | 87.75% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $37.50 | 87.51% | 57 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.50 | 87.60% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 14.1% rare 2.6% legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% gold 0.1% red 11.7% restricted 9.6% industrial 3.6% Classified 6.6% pink 18.0% Restricted 3.8% classified 4.6% uncommon 7.4% Legendary 1.7% violet 4.9% blue 11.3% best hit $786 (20.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt