---
title: "EGGSPLOSION case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "EGGSPLOSION ($0.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 29 items with odds, observed 82.74% over 41K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EGGSPLOSION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EGGSPLOSION

A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion?window=all)

Price · $0.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.44 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.74% · 41K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.04% ±5.00 4,574 openings

7 days · 82.94% ±1.84 34.5K openings

30 days · 82.74% ±1.70 41K openings

since tracking started · 82.74% ±1.70 41K openings

78.5% 84.0% 89.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.76% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.04% – 84.44%, 40,994 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion?window=24h) | 4,574 | 84.04% ±5.00 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion?window=7d) | 34.5K | 82.94% ±1.84 | −4.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion) | 41K | 82.74% ±1.70 | −4.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/eggsplosion?window=all) | 41K | 82.74% ±1.70 | −4.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100,000 | $237 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $54.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $12.97 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× |
| [AWP \| The End (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-well-worn) | 1 in 11,111 | $9.60 | 0.2% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.02 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $5.30 | 0.2% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 299 | $2.63 | 2.0% | 30 | 137.5 | 0.22× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) | 1 in 526 | $1.84 | 0.8% | 27 | 78.0 | 0.35× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $1.45 | 3.6% | 122 | 451.2 | 0.27× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-field-tested) | 1 in 196 | $1.12 | 1.3% | 74 | 209.8 | 0.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1.01 | 5.6% | 833 | 1004.3 | 0.83× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) | 1 in 124 | $0.89 | 1.6% | 134 | 332.2 | 0.40× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.83 | 5.6% | 1,025 | 1221.5 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $0.77 | 1.9% | 145 | 443.4 | 0.33× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) | 1 in 27 | $0.66 | 5.6% | 1,317 | 1536.0 | 0.86× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.66 | 5.6% | 1,387 | 1536.0 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 26 | $0.63 | 5.6% | 1,437 | 1609.5 | 0.89× |
| [M249 \| Aztec (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.54 | 5.6% | 1,788 | 1877.2 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.45 | 7.1% | 2,692 | 2835.1 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.42 | 2.8% | 407 | 1198.1 | 0.34× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.38 | 6.2% | 2,969 | 2932.8 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.33 | 5.5% | 2,914 | 3016.5 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.30 | 3.0% | 648 | 1793.4 | 0.36× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 5.1% | 3,120 | 3074.8 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.27 | 4.7% | 3,136 | 3140.5 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.27 | 4.7% | 3,475 | 3140.5 | 1.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.27 | 4.7% | 3,313 | 3140.5 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.26 | 4.6% | 3,621 | 3164.3 | 1.14× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.26 | 4.6% | 3,588 | 3164.3 | 1.13× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/eggsplosion`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=eggsplosion)

[M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) [ExecutoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ExecutoR) $0.50 $0.30 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) [ExecutoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ExecutoR) $0.50 $0.30 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $0.27 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $0.54 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) [Klemzila23](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Klemzila23) $0.50 $0.83 1.66x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [Neneca SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Neneca%20SKINS) $0.50 $0.38 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) [james rodriguez 420](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/james%20rodriguez%20420) $0.50 $0.33 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) [SarCase](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SarCase) $0.50 $0.27 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[Nova | Windblown weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown) [SarCase](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SarCase) $0.50 $0.35 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) [Gato Concentrão](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gato%20Concentr%C3%A3o) $0.50 $0.33 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.50 | 87.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.50 | 85.70% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.50 | 87.24% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.50 | 87.58% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.50 | 86.66% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.50 | 87.13% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.50 | 86.95% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.50 | 87.81% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.50 | 85.98% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.50 | 86.14% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.50 | 87.31% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.50 | 86.08% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.50 | 86.73% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.50 | 87.05% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.50 | 87.02% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.50 | 86.78% | 29 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.50 | 84.56% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 1.9% #8847ff 0.2% Mythical 2.4% violet 20.8% milspec 3.0% blue 34.4% Rare 2.9% gray 14.5% Mil Spec 4.4% light blue 7.6% #4b69ff 7.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt