---
title: "ELAINE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ELAINE ($200.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 92.79% over 1,123 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ELAINE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ELAINE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine?window=all)

Price · $200.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $175.01 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.79% · 1,123 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 43 openings · below min

7 days · 91.22% ±7.86 847 openings

30 days · 92.79% ±6.78 1,123 openings

since tracking started · 92.79% ±6.78 1,123 openings

82.5% 143.0% 203.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine?window=24h) | 43 | 166.41% ±36.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine?window=7d) | 847 | 91.22% ±7.86 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine) | 1,123 | 92.79% ±6.78 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elaine?window=all) | 1,123 | 92.79% ±6.78 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,123 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $9,664 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,100 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,429 | $2,003 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $1,328 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 625 | $855 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $783 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 66 | $745 | 6.5% | 5 | 17.1 | 0.29× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 66 | $744 | 6.5% | 7 | 17.1 | 0.41× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $602 | 6.5% | 31 | 21.1 | 1.47× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 44 | $499 | 6.5% | 34 | 25.5 | 1.33× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 37 | $423 | 6.5% | 39 | 30.0 | 1.30× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $418 | 6.5% | 29 | 30.4 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $385 | 6.5% | 47 | 33.0 | 1.42× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 20.6% | $241 | 28.5% | 238 | 231.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $190 | 3.3% | 26 | 34.5 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $160 | 2.7% | 20 | 32.8 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $153 | 4.0% | 32 | 50.9 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $92.38 | 3.7% | 60 | 79.1 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $35.91 | 0.9% | 19 | 48.9 | 0.39× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $35.74 | 0.7% | 38 | 39.0 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $33.10 | 0.9% | 40 | 55.6 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $30.80 | 1.0% | 40 | 62.4 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $28.80 | 1.0% | 41 | 69.5 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $23.44 | 0.9% | 56 | 76.5 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $22.91 | 0.9% | 44 | 79.3 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $22.71 | 0.9% | 39 | 82.0 | 0.48× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/elaine`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $200 $3,100 15.50x 2026-11-10 17:28 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $200 $3,091 15.46x 2026-11-10 17:28 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $200 $2,060 10.30x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Lonislide](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lonislide) $200 $1,347 6.73x 2026-11-09 19:15 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [knash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/knash) $200 $1,345 6.73x 2026-11-08 02:53 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [9K GW Code: BARU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/9K%20GW%20Code%3A%20BARU) $200 $893 4.47x 2026-11-03 20:00 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [9K GW Code: BARU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/9K%20GW%20Code%3A%20BARU) $200 $893 4.47x 2026-11-03 19:55 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [knash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/knash) $200 $791 3.95x 2026-11-08 02:53 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [knash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/knash) $200 $791 3.95x 2026-11-08 02:49 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $200 $775 3.87x 2026-11-05 20:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=elaine)

[★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) [SACI COM 3 perna](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SACI%20COM%203%20perna) $200 $241 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) Hidden $200 $30.98 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) [SACI COM 3 perna](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SACI%20COM%203%20perna) $200 $243 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $200 $31.81 0.16x 2026-11-11 02:43 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) [dex](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dex) $200 $24.80 0.12x 2026-11-10 22:48 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $200 $24.80 0.12x 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $200 $168 0.84x 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $200 $241 1.21x 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $200 $241 1.21x 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $200 $385 1.93x 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $200 | 87.66% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $200 | 87.55% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $200 | 87.46% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $200 | 87.61% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $200 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $200 | 87.74% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $200 | 87.24% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $200 | 87.58% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $200 | 87.67% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $200 | 87.38% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $200 | 87.61% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $200 | 87.24% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $200 | 87.26% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $200 | 87.41% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $200 | 87.42% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.3% gold 1.5% epic 1.9% rare 27.7% Ancient 2.9% restricted 14.9% classified 10.3% violet 6.2% pink 14.4% best hit $3,100 (15.50x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt