--- title: "ELEGIDO JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ELEGIDO JOKER ($179.88) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 70.70% over 135 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T14:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ELEGIDO JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ELEGIDO JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker?window=all) Price · $179.88 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 70.70% · 135 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 104 openings · below min 30 days · 135 openings · below min since tracking started · 135 openings · below min 20.5% 118.3% 216.0% **Small sample.** 135 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker?window=24h) | 22 | 118.09% ±97.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker?window=7d) | 104 | 72.41% ±31.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker) | 135 | 70.70% ±28.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido-joker?window=all) | 135 | 70.70% ±28.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $180 $1,398 7.77x 2026-11-05 23:31 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [krr666](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/krr666) $180 $1,387 7.71x 2026-11-03 10:06 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [krr666](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/krr666) $180 $1,387 7.71x 2026-11-03 10:04 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $174 $1,319 7.60x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $173 $1,308 7.57x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $180 $775 4.31x 2026-11-05 23:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $179 $765 4.28x 2026-11-06 20:04 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [kaeryka](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaeryka) $176 $752 4.28x 2026-11-09 17:27 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $176 $752 4.28x 2026-11-09 17:27 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [kaeryka](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaeryka) $177 $747 4.23x 2026-11-09 17:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=elegido-joker) [AWP | Fever Dream weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream) [BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ) $177 $15.36 0.09x 2026-11-12 13:25 UTC [P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) Hidden $173 $2.14 0.01x 2026-11-12 13:24 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $173 $234 1.35x 2026-11-12 13:24 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) Hidden $173 $3.71 0.02x 2026-11-12 13:24 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) [BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ) $173 $14.69 0.08x 2026-11-12 13:24 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ) $177 $642 3.64x 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ) $173 $632 3.66x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) Hidden $173 $20.63 0.12x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC [MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) Hidden $173 $2.13 0.01x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) Hidden $173 $3.25 0.02x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,398 (7.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 70.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $70.70 on average: an expected loss of $29.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt