--- title: "ELEGIDO case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "ELEGIDO ($7.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.92% over 6,189 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ELEGIDO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ELEGIDO A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido?window=all) Price · $7.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.92% · 6,189 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 907 openings · below min 7 days · 88.86% ±6.13 4,105 openings 30 days · 88.92% ±5.55 6,189 openings since tracking started · 88.92% ±5.55 6,189 openings 82.0% 90.0% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido?window=24h) | 907 | 90.50% ±6.82 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido?window=7d) | 4,105 | 88.86% ±6.13 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido) | 6,189 | 88.92% ±5.55 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/elegido?window=all) | 6,189 | 88.92% ±5.55 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $7.00 $765 109.3x 2026-11-06 20:37 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $7.00 $764 109.2x 2026-11-03 17:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=elegido) [AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $7.00 $5.95 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [AWP | Duality weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $7.00 $4.50 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $7.00 $13.12 1.87x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $7.00 $21.32 3.05x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $7.00 $5.95 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $7.00 $0.63 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $7.00 $4.04 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.00 $3.34 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.00 $23.68 3.38x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.00 $4.00 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $765 (109.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt