---
title: "EMERALD VEIN case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "EMERALD VEIN ($19.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 83.12% over 21.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EMERALD VEIN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EMERALD VEIN

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein?window=all)

Price · $19.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $16.63 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.12% · 21.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 22.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 52 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 73.60% ±15.92 3,346 openings

7 days · 81.64% ±7.02 17.4K openings

30 days · 83.12% ±6.32 21.6K openings

since tracking started · 83.12% ±6.32 21.6K openings

57.0% 73.5% 90.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein?window=24h) | 3,346 | 73.60% ±15.9 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein?window=7d) | 17.4K | 81.64% ±7.02 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein) | 21.6K | 83.12% ±6.32 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald-vein?window=all) | 21.6K | 83.12% ±6.32 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $8,456 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 14,286 | $2,003 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,708 | 2.1% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 476 | $707 | 8.9% | 46 | 45.6 | 1.01× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 417 | $632 | 9.1% | 53 | 52.1 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 370 | $572 | 9.3% | 42 | 58.6 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $531 | 9.3% | 44 | 62.9 | 0.70× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 345 | $514 | 9.0% | 65 | 62.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 169 | $255 | 9.1% | 88 | 128.0 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 152 | $231 | 9.2% | 109 | 143.2 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $14.00 | 7.4% | 2,132 | 1900.3 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 10.5% | $7.32 | 4.6% | 2,467 | 2279.9 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 10.6% | $7.04 | 4.5% | 2,390 | 2306.0 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 10.7% | $6.98 | 4.5% | 2,375 | 2312.5 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 10.7% | $6.96 | 4.5% | 2,406 | 2314.6 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 12.5% | $4.08 | 3.1% | 2,740 | 2716.0 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 14.7% | $2.37 | 2.1% | 3,012 | 3197.5 | 0.94× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 18.9% | $1.01 | 1.2% | 3,718 | 4106.5 | 0.91× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/emerald-vein`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [YüceTanGacıAçKangalYavrusu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Y%C3%BCceTanGac%C4%B1A%C3%A7KangalYavrusu) $19.00 $8,456 445.1x 2026-11-08 14:37 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [YüceTanGacıAçKangalYavrusu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Y%C3%BCceTanGac%C4%B1A%C3%A7KangalYavrusu) $19.00 $8,456 445.1x 2026-11-08 14:36 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Frelsi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Frelsi) $19.00 $1,707 89.84x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.00 $1,680 88.45x 2026-11-10 07:09 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.00 $1,664 87.60x 2026-11-04 19:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.00 $1,664 87.60x 2026-11-02 23:23 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [XRMPAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/XRMPAL) $19.00 $740 38.97x 2026-11-03 08:35 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.00 $740 38.97x 2026-11-02 23:17 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.00 $740 38.97x 2026-11-02 23:11 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.00 $735 38.70x 2026-11-04 04:18 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=emerald-vein)

[MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Montana) $19.00 $6.96 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $19.00 $1.01 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $19.00 $6.98 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Montana) $19.00 $6.96 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) [Sober But Blur](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sober%20But%20Blur) $19.00 $2.37 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) [Sober But Blur](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sober%20But%20Blur) $19.00 $2.37 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $19.00 $6.98 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $19.00 $6.96 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $19.00 $1.01 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [Ñomeee](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%91omeee) $19.00 $7.32 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $19.00 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $19.00 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $19.00 | 87.46% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $19.00 | 86.89% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $19.00 | 87.65% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $19.00 | 86.98% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $19.00 | 87.44% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $19.00 | 87.25% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $19.00 | 87.49% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $19.00 | 87.33% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $19.00 | 86.85% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $19.00 | 87.20% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $19.00 | 87.54% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $19.00 | 86.74% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $19.00 | 87.07% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $19.00 | 87.66% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $19.00 | 88.09% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.00 | 88.06% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.6% restricted 34.0% red 0.7% pink 53.2% blue 10.5% best hit $8,456 (445.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt