---
title: "EMERALD case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EMERALD ($1,000.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 88.33% over 1,481 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EMERALD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EMERALD

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald?window=all)

Price · $1,000.00

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $905.01 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.33% · 1,481 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.18% ±6.15 351 openings

7 days · 87.87% ±3.39 1,198 openings

30 days · 88.33% ±3.08 1,481 openings

since tracking started · 88.33% ±3.08 1,481 openings

82.5% 89.3% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald?window=24h) | 351 | 89.18% ±6.15 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald?window=7d) | 1,198 | 87.87% ±3.39 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald) | 1,481 | 88.33% ±3.08 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/emerald?window=all) | 1,481 | 88.33% ±3.08 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,481 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $9,286 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $4,012 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2,751 | 9.1% | 43 | 44.3 | 0.97× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $2,232 | 2.3% | 19 | 14.1 | 1.35× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 104 | $2,204 | 2.3% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $2,036 | 2.3% | 14 | 15.4 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $1,945 | 2.3% | 23 | 16.1 | 1.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $1,888 | 2.3% | 8 | 16.6 | 0.48× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $1,885 | 2.3% | 15 | 16.6 | 0.90× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $1,566 | 2.3% | 22 | 20.0 | 1.10× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 12.6% | $1,328 | 18.4% | 170 | 186.0 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 10.8% | $921 | 11.0% | 124 | 159.8 | 0.78× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 11.1% | $905 | 11.0% | 124 | 163.7 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $787 | 3.5% | 71 | 58.9 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $783 | 3.5% | 54 | 59.1 | 0.91× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $688 | 3.3% | 57 | 63.8 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $609 | 3.1% | 57 | 68.7 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $544 | 3.0% | 86 | 73.5 | 1.17× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 19 | $510 | 2.9% | 94 | 76.4 | 1.23× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $492 | 2.9% | 102 | 78.0 | 1.31× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $478 | 2.8% | 76 | 79.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $463 | 2.8% | 107 | 80.9 | 1.32× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $443 | 2.7% | 91 | 83.1 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $396 | 2.7% | 109 | 90.0 | 1.21× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/emerald`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [PYREXX-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PYREXX-) $1,000 $9,455 9.45x 2026-11-05 21:23 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $4,045 4.05x 2026-11-05 08:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $2,782 2.78x 2026-11-03 00:39 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $2,766 2.77x 2026-11-05 21:33 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $2,766 2.77x 2026-11-05 21:25 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [PYREXX-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PYREXX-) $1,000 $2,766 2.77x 2026-11-05 21:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [zack](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/zack) $1,000 $2,765 2.77x 2026-11-10 18:02 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [dzs4z0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dzs4z0n) $1,000 $2,765 2.77x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $2,765 2.77x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $2,765 2.77x 2026-11-10 15:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=emerald)

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [✓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%93) $1,000 $510 0.51x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [c1tsa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/c1tsa) $1,000 $905 0.90x 2026-11-11 06:48 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $1,328 1.33x 2026-11-11 06:48 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [c1tsa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/c1tsa) $1,000 $905 0.90x 2026-11-11 06:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $1,000 $1,945 1.95x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $1,328 1.33x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,000 $492 0.49x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,000 $905 0.90x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,000 $905 0.90x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,000 $1,328 1.33x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1,000 | 90.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1,000 | 90.74% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1,000 | 90.70% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1,000 | 90.93% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1,000 | 91.02% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1,000 | 90.66% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1,000 | 90.94% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1,000 | 90.82% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1,000 | 90.88% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1,000 | 91.05% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1,000 | 90.75% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1,000 | 90.69% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1,000 | 90.89% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1,000 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1,000 | 90.93% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1,000 | 90.75% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,000 | 90.94% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 77.6% legendary 2.1% extraordinary 6.4% rare 4.0% epic 4.3% gold 5.6% best hit $9,455 (9.45x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt