---
title: "ENCHANT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ENCHANT ($17.45) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 68 items with odds, observed 87.51% over 1,319 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ENCHANT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ENCHANT

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant?window=all)

Price · $17.45

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $15.27 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.51% · 1,319 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.67% ±61.60 100 openings

7 days · 92.25% ±18.20 1,045 openings

30 days · 87.51% ±16.29 1,319 openings

since tracking started · 87.51% ±16.29 1,319 openings

24.5% 86.8% 149.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant?window=24h) | 100 | 86.67% ±61.6 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant?window=7d) | 1,045 | 92.25% ±18.2 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant) | 1,319 | 87.51% ±16.3 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/enchant?window=all) | 1,319 | 87.51% ±16.3 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,319 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,040 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $1,422 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $819 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $783 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $395 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,351 | $345 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $254 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $171 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,923 | $154 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,724 | $146 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,695 | $135 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,449 | $133 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $125 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 1,351 | $120 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 680 | $107 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $104 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $82.85 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 952 | $75.12 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 840 | $70.60 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 379 | $64.85 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 685 | $62.50 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 581 | $59.43 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 339 | $58.32 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 541 | $55.32 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 297 | $54.51 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 230 | $54.24 | 1.5% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 398 | $54.19 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 221 | $53.21 | 1.6% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 431 | $49.30 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 429 | $49.23 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 289 | $46.10 | 1.0% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $43.70 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $40.70 | 8.6% | 31 | 42.7 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $32.64 | 8.9% | 56 | 54.6 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $32.16 | 9.0% | 45 | 56.3 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 180 | $31.42 | 1.1% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $26.29 | 4.0% | 56 | 30.3 | 1.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $23.33 | 5.9% | 25 | 50.6 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 13.0% | $18.34 | 15.6% | 95 | 171.1 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $16.58 | 1.1% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $15.86 | 0.4% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 826 | $15.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $15.30 | 1.2% | 16 | 15.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $11.25 | 3.4% | 66 | 60.2 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $10.77 | 0.7% | 8 | 12.6 | 0.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 306 | $8.08 | 0.2% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $7.93 | 0.6% | 16 | 14.3 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $7.01 | 0.6% | 9 | 17.2 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $6.76 | 0.8% | 20 | 25.2 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $5.81 | 0.9% | 16 | 31.7 | 0.51× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 218 | $5.74 | 0.2% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $4.64 | 0.3% | 5 | 11.5 | 0.43× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $3.70 | 0.8% | 30 | 44.8 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $3.27 | 0.2% | 10 | 14.0 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $3.25 | 0.3% | 17 | 19.7 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $3.00 | 0.2% | 15 | 14.2 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $2.59 | 0.4% | 20 | 27.6 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $2.42 | 0.4% | 17 | 30.6 | 0.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $2.33 | 0.3% | 23 | 27.8 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.31 | 0.4% | 29 | 32.8 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $2.30 | 0.3% | 25 | 28.4 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $1.84 | 0.3% | 22 | 33.2 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.54 | 0.3% | 29 | 43.4 | 0.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.37 | 0.3% | 31 | 45.9 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.31 | 0.4% | 29 | 55.3 | 0.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.22 | 0.3% | 32 | 54.6 | 0.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.19 | 0.3% | 41 | 56.7 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $1.01 | 0.5% | 69 | 98.3 | 0.70× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/enchant`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Luchozkill](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luchozkill) $17.45 $833 47.74x 2026-11-05 09:38 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Luchozkill](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luchozkill) $17.45 $833 47.73x 2026-11-05 09:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=enchant)

[AWP | Green Energy weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy) [Huchi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Huchi) $17.45 $8.01 0.46x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.45 $41.52 2.38x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.45 $41.52 2.38x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.45 $1.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) [Huchi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Huchi) $17.45 $3.44 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray) [morxlesss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/morxlesss) $17.45 $19.08 1.09x 2026-11-11 09:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.45 $1.31 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) Hidden $17.45 $1.84 0.11x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.45 $40.70 2.33x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) [morxlesss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/morxlesss) $17.45 $26.29 1.51x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $17.45 | 87.50% | 68 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $17.45 | 87.46% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $17.45 | 87.74% | 68 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $17.45 | 87.99% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $17.45 | 87.75% | 68 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $17.45 | 87.18% | 68 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $17.45 | 87.43% | 68 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $17.45 | 87.75% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $17.45 | 87.70% | 68 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $17.45 | 87.09% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $17.45 | 87.12% | 68 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $17.45 | 87.57% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $17.45 | 87.23% | 68 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $17.45 | 87.80% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $17.45 | 87.97% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $17.45 | 88.35% | 68 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $17.45 | 87.72% | 68 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.45 | 87.86% | 68 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% #ffd700 0.1% gold 0.0% covert 3.2% #d32ee6 0.1% red 8.0% uncommon 0.3% Covert 0.3% pink 18.3% Ancient 4.1% rare 1.9% classified 22.0% Legendary 3.8% #d32ce6 4.9% Mythical 3.3% violet 20.3% #4b69ff 0.9% blue 4.0% common 4.4% best hit $833 (47.74x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt