---
title: "ENDLESS JOURNEY case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ENDLESS JOURNEY ($89.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 42 items with odds, observed 90.73% over 1,755 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ENDLESS JOURNEY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ENDLESS JOURNEY

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey?window=all)

Price · $89.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $78.31 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.73% · 1,755 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.41% ±17.51 257 openings

7 days · 91.08% ±7.08 1,594 openings

30 days · 90.73% ±6.74 1,755 openings

since tracking started · 90.73% ±6.74 1,755 openings

66.5% 84.5% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey?window=24h) | 257 | 84.41% ±17.5 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey?window=7d) | 1,594 | 91.08% ±7.08 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey) | 1,755 | 90.73% ±6.74 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/endless-journey?window=all) | 1,755 | 90.73% ±6.74 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,755 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,792 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,204 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,708 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $919 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,429 | $877 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $572 | 0.7% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.85× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 833 | $469 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $425 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $401 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 91 | $323 | 4.5% | 20 | 19.3 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $283 | 4.6% | 17 | 22.1 | 0.77× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $257 | 4.5% | 22 | 24.2 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 65 | $231 | 4.5% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $219 | 4.8% | 27 | 29.8 | 0.90× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 51 | $190 | 4.8% | 33 | 34.4 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 175 | $183 | 1.3% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $156 | 4.8% | 43 | 41.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $151 | 1.6% | 15 | 14.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $145 | 4.8% | 50 | 45.3 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $137 | 1.8% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $113 | 7.5% | 102 | 90.4 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $113 | 1.7% | 10 | 20.9 | 0.48× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $110 | 7.4% | 94 | 92.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $102 | 1.9% | 28 | 25.6 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $102 | 1.9% | 19 | 25.8 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $101 | 1.9% | 17 | 26.3 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $78.70 | 5.6% | 96 | 97.2 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $70.23 | 1.4% | 27 | 28.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $64.53 | 0.9% | 9 | 19.1 | 0.47× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $55.73 | 1.6% | 26 | 39.0 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $47.10 | 1.7% | 44 | 49.3 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $44.25 | 1.1% | 30 | 32.6 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $41.90 | 1.1% | 24 | 35.1 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $38.17 | 1.1% | 27 | 40.0 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $34.76 | 3.5% | 165 | 139.7 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $33.70 | 0.5% | 18 | 22.1 | 0.81× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $22.76 | 2.7% | 153 | 165.5 | 0.92× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $21.30 | 2.6% | 159 | 170.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $19.48 | 0.7% | 22 | 47.7 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $19.05 | 0.7% | 51 | 49.1 | 1.04× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 10.3% | $18.20 | 2.4% | 167 | 181.1 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $17.79 | 0.7% | 43 | 57.7 | 0.74× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/endless-journey`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $89.50 $8,984 100.4x 2026-11-06 14:54 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $89.50 $923 10.31x 2026-11-04 20:12 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Pela\_Dego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pela_Dego) $89.50 $586 6.55x 2026-11-05 01:57 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [100B](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/100B) $89.50 $580 6.48x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [100B](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/100B) $89.50 $580 6.48x 2026-11-08 20:54 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $89.50 $573 6.41x 2026-11-05 19:25 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $89.50 $571 6.38x 2026-11-09 21:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=endless-journey)

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [Sober But Blur](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sober%20But%20Blur) $89.50 $34.76 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Sober But Blur](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sober%20But%20Blur) $89.50 $401 4.48x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [Sober But Blur](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sober%20But%20Blur) $89.50 $34.76 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[AWP | Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-well-worn) Hidden $89.50 $55.73 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $89.50 $19.05 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.50 $113 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Sober But Blur](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sober%20But%20Blur) $89.50 $401 4.48x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.50 $21.30 0.24x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.50 $22.76 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[AWP | Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) Hidden $89.50 $47.10 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $89.50 | 87.50% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $89.50 | 87.50% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $89.50 | 87.32% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $89.50 | 87.37% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $89.50 | 87.34% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $89.50 | 87.20% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $89.50 | 87.65% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $89.50 | 87.45% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $89.50 | 87.55% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $89.50 | 87.76% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $89.50 | 87.47% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $89.50 | 87.73% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $89.50 | 87.35% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $89.50 | 87.78% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $89.50 | 87.73% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $89.50 | 87.85% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $89.50 | 87.32% | 42 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $89.50 | 87.75% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 30.9% legendary 0.1% gold 8.1% red 9.1% rare 4.4% restricted 8.0% classified 10.1% violet 19.8% mil spec 9.7% best hit $8,984 (100.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt