--- title: "ENERGY case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "ENERGY ($0.60) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 79.87% over 31.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy rendered: 2026-11-11T22:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ENERGY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ENERGY A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy?window=all) Price · $0.60 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.52 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.87% · 31.8K openings, odds method Variance · 36.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.77% ±26.83 1,997 openings 7 days · 78.39% ±7.98 24.9K openings 30 days · 79.87% ±7.11 31.8K openings since tracking started · 79.87% ±7.11 31.8K openings 70.0% 98.5% 127.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.65% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.76% – 86.99%, 31,764 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy?window=24h) | 1,997 | 99.77% ±26.8 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy?window=7d) | 24.9K | 78.39% ±7.98 | −2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy) | 31.8K | 79.87% ±7.11 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/energy?window=all) | 31.8K | 79.87% ±7.11 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $70.73 | 6.7% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 366 | $57.67 | 30.0% | 86 | 86.8 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $6.60 | 29.8% | 618 | 754.2 | 0.82× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.31 | 29.9% | 785 | 938.6 | 0.84× | | [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 47.2% | $0.02 | 1.8% | 15,555 | 15001.2 | 1.04× | | [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 47.2% | $0.02 | 1.8% | 14,735 | 15000.2 | 0.98× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/energy`, 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) [KEBAB NÄNNI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KEBAB%20N%C3%84NNI) $0.60 $80.44 134.1x 2026-11-03 14:33 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) [KEBAB NÄNNI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KEBAB%20N%C3%84NNI) $0.60 $80.44 134.1x 2026-11-03 14:33 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $78.31 130.5x 2026-11-05 11:11 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $78.31 130.5x 2026-11-05 10:55 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $78.20 130.3x 2026-11-05 18:35 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) [Kalimero](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kalimero) $0.60 $76.19 127.0x 2026-11-03 18:21 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) [Kalimero](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kalimero) $0.60 $76.19 127.0x 2026-11-03 18:21 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $76.13 126.9x 2026-11-10 08:38 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $76.00 126.7x 2026-11-06 20:30 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $76.00 126.7x 2026-11-06 18:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=energy) [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:26 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:25 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:25 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:25 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:25 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:23 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:23 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:23 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:23 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [LINKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LINKE) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 88.36% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 87.39% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 87.58% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 87.00% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 87.68% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 88.03% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 88.26% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.79% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 88.28% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 87.68% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 88.00% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 88.19% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 86.65% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 87.72% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.30% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 88.38% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% rare 0.3% pink 2.4% Legendary 3.0% gray 94.4% best hit $80.44 (134.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt