---
title: "ENGRAVE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ENGRAVE ($30.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 84.56% over 8,276 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ENGRAVE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ENGRAVE

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave?window=all)

Price · $30.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $26.25 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.56% · 8,276 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.15% ±7.93 709 openings

7 days · 84.88% ±2.55 6,868 openings

30 days · 84.56% ±2.32 8,276 openings

since tracking started · 84.56% ±2.32 8,276 openings

70.5% 79.3% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.51% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.24% – 86.89%, 8,276 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave?window=24h) | 709 | 79.15% ±7.93 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave?window=7d) | 6,868 | 84.88% ±2.55 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave) | 8,276 | 84.56% ±2.32 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/engrave?window=all) | 8,276 | 84.56% ±2.32 | −2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,334 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,162 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,119 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $711 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $595 | 0.5% | 5 | 1.7 | 3.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 3,333 | $507 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $273 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $265 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $219 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $214 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $209 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $207 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $180 | 0.5% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $173 | 0.5% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $172 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $172 | 0.5% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $135 | 0.3% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $129 | 0.2% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $87.50 | 5.3% | 78 | 132.5 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $83.03 | 4.0% | 51 | 105.8 | 0.48× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $79.26 | 5.2% | 57 | 143.3 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $74.49 | 2.0% | 59 | 58.3 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $74.47 | 2.0% | 58 | 58.3 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $73.13 | 2.0% | 54 | 60.0 | 0.90× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $65.92 | 2.0% | 34 | 65.8 | 0.52× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $65.58 | 2.0% | 47 | 66.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $64.91 | 2.0% | 60 | 68.3 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $54.81 | 1.9% | 60 | 77.5 | 0.77× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $54.53 | 7.7% | 271 | 307.5 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $53.32 | 2.0% | 60 | 82.5 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $43.99 | 4.9% | 113 | 241.7 | 0.47× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $43.82 | 3.5% | 120 | 176.7 | 0.68× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $35.74 | 11.2% | 785 | 682.6 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $33.91 | 6.3% | 389 | 406.7 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $32.89 | 2.7% | 177 | 176.7 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $26.52 | 4.3% | 338 | 351.7 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $24.64 | 0.2% | 22 | 20.8 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $20.75 | 1.5% | 104 | 156.7 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $20.24 | 1.5% | 125 | 162.5 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $15.86 | 1.2% | 114 | 162.5 | 0.70× |
| [Charm \| Glitter Bomb charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glitter-bomb) | 1 in 16 | $14.74 | 3.4% | 476 | 510.9 | 0.93× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $14.32 | 1.7% | 191 | 255.0 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.25 | 1.1% | 107 | 167.5 | 0.64× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $13.79 | 1.7% | 190 | 270.9 | 0.70× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $13.65 | 1.1% | 104 | 180.0 | 0.58× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $13.48 | 1.5% | 186 | 250.0 | 0.74× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $13.40 | 1.1% | 137 | 185.0 | 0.74× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $11.64 | 1.7% | 214 | 315.9 | 0.68× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $8.55 | 0.8% | 172 | 211.7 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $8.47 | 0.5% | 82 | 116.7 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $7.93 | 1.8% | 380 | 493.4 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $5.59 | 0.6% | 204 | 226.7 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.30 | 0.6% | 184 | 247.5 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $5.16 | 0.6% | 194 | 257.5 | 0.75× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.64 | 1.4% | 591 | 836.7 | 0.71× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/engrave`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $608 20.26x 2026-11-07 16:41 UTC

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $603 20.11x 2026-11-05 03:09 UTC

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $602 20.08x 2026-11-08 17:53 UTC

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) [senseiKeS-\_\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/senseiKeS-_%60) $30.00 $601 20.05x 2026-11-05 15:13 UTC

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) [senseiKeS-\_\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/senseiKeS-_%60) $30.00 $601 20.05x 2026-11-05 15:12 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $30.00 $513 17.11x 2026-11-08 17:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=engrave)

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $30.00 $54.53 1.82x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $30.00 $37.67 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy) [foxikkk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/foxikkk) $30.00 $9.89 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $46.45 1.55x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) [foxikkk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/foxikkk) $30.00 $16.23 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov) [foxikkk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/foxikkk) $30.00 $13.75 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage) [foxikkk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/foxikkk) $30.00 $6.22 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) [foxikkk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/foxikkk) $30.00 $13.85 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 $35.36 1.18x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 $74.43 2.48x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $30.00 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $30.00 | 87.66% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $30.00 | 87.19% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $30.00 | 87.63% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $30.00 | 87.30% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $30.00 | 87.49% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $30.00 | 87.65% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $30.00 | 87.64% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.49% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $30.00 | 87.42% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $30.00 | 87.45% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $30.00 | 87.67% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $30.00 | 87.61% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $30.00 | 87.52% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $30.00 | 87.63% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.58% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.00 | 87.55% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.8% gold 3.8% red 16.9% Covert 0.8% classified 35.2% Classified 4.7% pink 17.9% #d32ce6 11.0% best hit $608 (20.26x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt