--- title: "EXPLOSION JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "EXPLOSION JOKER ($396.36) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.04% over 339 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EXPLOSION JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EXPLOSION JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker?window=all) Price · $396.36 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.04% · 339 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 41 openings · below min 7 days · 334 openings · below min 30 days · 339 openings · below min since tracking started · 339 openings · below min 28.0% 66.8% 105.5% **Small sample.** 339 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker?window=24h) | 41 | 66.75% ±37.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker?window=7d) | 334 | 86.50% ±15.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker) | 339 | 87.04% ±15.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion-joker?window=all) | 339 | 87.04% ±15.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $396 $2,234 5.64x 2026-11-03 21:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $388 $2,152 5.55x 2026-11-08 03:02 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $388 $2,152 5.55x 2026-11-07 22:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $369 $1,930 5.24x 2026-11-10 10:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $370 $1,930 5.22x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $370 $1,930 5.22x 2026-11-10 07:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $370 $1,930 5.22x 2026-11-10 07:09 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $370 $1,930 5.22x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $370 $1,930 5.22x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $370 $1,930 5.22x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=explosion-joker) [M4A1-S | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $370 $215 0.58x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $379 $225 0.59x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $379 $290 0.77x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $370 $54.24 0.15x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $370 $1.22 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $379 $91.12 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $379 $53.51 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $379 $1.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) Hidden $379 $123 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $370 $66.33 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,234 (5.64x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.04 on average: an expected loss of $12.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt