---
title: "EXPLOSION case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EXPLOSION ($13.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 33 items with odds, observed 83.66% over 9,067 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EXPLOSION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EXPLOSION

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion?window=all)

Price · $13.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $11.38 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.66% · 9,067 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.75% ±12.97 1,297 openings

7 days · 83.37% ±5.46 7,374 openings

30 days · 83.66% ±4.94 9,067 openings

since tracking started · 83.66% ±4.94 9,067 openings

71.0% 84.7% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion?window=24h) | 1,297 | 84.75% ±13.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion?window=7d) | 7,374 | 83.37% ±5.46 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion) | 9,067 | 83.66% ±4.94 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/explosion?window=all) | 9,067 | 83.66% ±4.94 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,067 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,930 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,685 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $573 | 2.5% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.32× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $550 | 2.4% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $273 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $226 | 2.2% | 7 | 10.0 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $209 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $207 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $172 | 0.8% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $135 | 0.7% | 1 | 5.4 | 0.18× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $129 | 0.8% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $125 | 0.8% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $84.18 | 2.2% | 35 | 27.2 | 1.29× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 833 | $70.60 | 0.7% | 4 | 10.9 | 0.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $66.44 | 0.6% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $64.85 | 0.8% | 7 | 12.7 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $64.58 | 2.3% | 41 | 36.3 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $64.31 | 0.8% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $56.31 | 0.8% | 6 | 14.5 | 0.41× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 213 | $54.24 | 2.2% | 37 | 42.6 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $54.15 | 2.2% | 28 | 42.6 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 588 | $53.65 | 0.8% | 14 | 15.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $43.45 | 0.7% | 10 | 16.3 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $38.98 | 7.2% | 127 | 191.3 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $36.63 | 7.7% | 160 | 216.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $35.65 | 10.2% | 196 | 293.8 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $32.16 | 11.3% | 168 | 360.9 | 0.47× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 10.4% | $23.44 | 21.4% | 946 | 940.2 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $7.55 | 1.5% | 156 | 200.4 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $4.82 | 2.4% | 407 | 517.7 | 0.79× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $4.17 | 2.6% | 493 | 652.8 | 0.76× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.11 | 2.7% | 505 | 667.3 | 0.76× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 52.2% | $1.22 | 5.6% | 4,661 | 4734.8 | 0.98× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/explosion`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $13.00 $1,696 130.4x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $13.00 $622 47.81x 2026-11-07 06:08 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $13.00 $600 46.14x 2026-11-07 17:54 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Klácsku](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kl%C3%A1csku) $13.00 $598 46.00x 2026-11-04 03:56 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $13.00 $598 46.00x 2026-11-03 23:14 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $13.00 $597 45.90x 2026-11-08 18:42 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $13.00 $587 45.18x 2026-11-10 06:27 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $13.00 $587 45.18x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $13.00 $573 44.07x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=explosion)

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $13.00 $4.65 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $13.00 $4.02 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $13.00 $1.18 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $13.00 $1.18 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $13.00 $1.18 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.00 $4.06 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.00 $36.61 2.82x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $13.00 $1.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $13.00 $4.65 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $13.00 $1.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $13.00 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.43% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $13.00 | 87.61% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $13.00 | 87.05% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $13.00 | 88.33% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.00 | 87.14% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $13.00 | 87.37% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $13.00 | 87.23% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $13.00 | 87.55% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $13.00 | 86.94% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $13.00 | 87.75% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $13.00 | 87.57% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $13.00 | 87.44% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $13.00 | 87.41% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $13.00 | 87.24% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $13.00 | 87.19% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.00 | 87.18% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% restricted 0.0% covert 10.8% legendary 0.1% red 4.0% classified 23.4% pink 9.4% gray 52.2% best hit $1,696 (130.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt