--- title: "EXTRA JUICY JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "EXTRA JUICY JOKER ($1,523.59) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 94.76% over 997 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EXTRA JUICY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EXTRA JUICY JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker?window=all) Price · $1,523.59 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 94.76% · 997 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 303 openings · below min 7 days · 997 openings · below min 30 days · 997 openings · below min since tracking started · 997 openings · below min 71.0% 90.0% 109.0% **Small sample.** 997 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker?window=24h) | 303 | 89.92% ±18.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker?window=7d) | 997 | 94.76% ±10.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker) | 997 | 94.76% ±10.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy-joker?window=all) | 997 | 94.76% ±10.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-10 05:14 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-10 05:13 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-10 03:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-09 22:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,504 $11K 7.29x 2026-11-09 19:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=extra-juicy-joker) [M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) [twitch.tv/niico\_bn](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fniico_bn) $1,524 $220 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [twitch.tv/niico\_bn](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fniico_bn) $1,524 $1,688 1.11x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $1,489 $1,180 0.79x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,489 $75.27 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,489 $257 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,489 $1,682 1.13x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,489 $469 0.31x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) [twitch.tv/niico\_bn](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fniico_bn) $1,489 $210 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [twitch.tv/niico\_bn](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fniico_bn) $1,489 $1,674 1.12x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) Hidden $1,489 $116 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $11K (7.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.76 on average: an expected loss of $5.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt