--- title: "EXTRA JUICY case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "EXTRA JUICY ($250.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 84.53% over 8,706 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [EXTRA JUICY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · EXTRA JUICY A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy?window=all) Price · $250.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $218.76 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.53% · 8,706 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.74% ±2.78 3,967 openings 7 days · 84.53% ±1.89 8,706 openings 30 days · 84.53% ±1.89 8,706 openings since tracking started · 84.53% ±1.89 8,706 openings 82.0% 86.0% 90.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.64% – 86.41%, 8,706 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy?window=24h) | 3,967 | 86.74% ±2.78 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy?window=7d) | 8,706 | 84.53% ±1.89 | −2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy) | 8,706 | 84.53% ±1.89 | −2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/extra-juicy?window=all) | 8,706 | 84.53% ±1.89 | −2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,237 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.9K | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,557 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,645 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,042 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,707 | 0.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.80× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,685 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $1,173 | 1.8% | 24 | 30.5 | 0.79× | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $1,109 | 1.8% | 42 | 32.3 | 1.30× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $755 | 5.8% | 139 | 156.1 | 0.89× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $749 | 5.8% | 122 | 157.0 | 0.78× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $525 | 5.9% | 264 | 228.2 | 1.16× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 36 | $469 | 5.9% | 267 | 255.9 | 1.04× | | [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $453 | 5.9% | 288 | 264.2 | 1.09× | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $403 | 2.9% | 138 | 145.0 | 0.95× | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $382 | 3.0% | 147 | 160.7 | 0.91× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $336 | 12.0% | 528 | 723.3 | 0.73× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 10.2% | $258 | 12.0% | 784 | 941.3 | 0.83× | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $222 | 5.6% | 500 | 511.7 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $156 | 4.6% | 614 | 596.7 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $149 | 4.5% | 652 | 608.7 | 1.07× | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $137 | 4.3% | 628 | 628.1 | 1.00× | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $128 | 4.1% | 641 | 644.7 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $87.40 | 3.3% | 730 | 751.9 | 0.97× | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $82.70 | 3.1% | 815 | 768.5 | 1.06× | | [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $75.73 | 3.0% | 880 | 796.2 | 1.11× | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $70.73 | 2.9% | 908 | 824.9 | 1.10× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/extra-juicy`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $250 $5,557 22.23x 2026-11-10 22:45 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $250 $3,593 14.37x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $250 $1,711 6.84x 2026-11-10 15:41 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $250 $1,711 6.84x 2026-11-10 15:41 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $250 $1,708 6.83x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $250 $1,707 6.83x 2026-11-10 23:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $1,688 6.75x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $1,688 6.75x 2026-11-09 22:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $1,685 6.74x 2026-11-10 15:03 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [kOUKi-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kOUKi-) $250 $1,646 6.58x 2026-11-09 11:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=extra-juicy) [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [FROSTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FROSTI) $250 $336 1.34x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) [FROSTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FROSTI) $250 $525 2.10x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) [FROSTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FROSTI) $250 $755 3.02x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [FROSTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FROSTI) $250 $336 1.34x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $250 $75.27 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [FROSTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FROSTI) $250 $333 1.33x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $250 $75.27 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) [FROSTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FROSTI) $250 $444 1.78x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $250 $87.43 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) [FROSTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FROSTI) $250 $755 3.02x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $250 | 87.50% | 26 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $250 | 86.42% | 26 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $250 | 86.00% | 26 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $250 | 87.42% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 21.3% restricted 11.6% extraordinary 1.7% gold 2.8% mil spec 2.9% epic 5.5% pink 6.5% violet 6.8% gray 7.0% blue 16.5% #4b69ff 8.6% Industrial Grade 8.9% best hit $5,557 (22.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt