---
title: "FACEIT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FACEIT ($0.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FACEIT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FACEIT

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit?window=all)

Price · $0.00

Advertised RTP · —

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · — · needs odds

Tail share · — · needs odds

Below price · — · needs odds

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/faceit?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $132 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $54.81 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $38.61 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $10.77 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.50 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.04 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $3.44 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1.31 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $0.57 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $0.49 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.42 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Tango (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.36 | 18.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.14 | 12.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.08 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 32.5% | $0.02 | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 32.5% | $0.02 | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/faceit`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=faceit)

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [WaoNa ☁](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/WaoNa%20%E2%98%81) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) [Plusfive\_3VT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Plusfive_3VT) $0 $0.52 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [Jeykproo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeykproo) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:47 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [\[AWE\] Ryanzin10 SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%5BAWE%5D%20Ryanzin10%20SKINS) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:47 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) [C0LD R3AD????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/C0LD%20R3AD%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0 $0.39 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:47 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [hotelkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hotelkin) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:46 UTC

[SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) [Ganjubas](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Ganjubas) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:46 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [gassda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gassda) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:46 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [romerlight](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/romerlight) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:45 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) [piporz SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/piporz%20SKINS) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:45 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% pink 0.1% #d32ee6 0.0% restricted 1.7% Mythical 0.7% violet 1.0% blue 3.5% #4b69ff 13.0% gray 65.0% light blue 7.5% Uncommon 7.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt