--- title: "FANG JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FANG JOKER ($254.37) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.65% over 189 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T12:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FANG JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FANG JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker?window=all) Price · $254.37 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.65% · 189 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 49 openings · below min 7 days · 88 openings · below min 30 days · 189 openings · below min since tracking started · 189 openings · below min 59.5% 95.0% 130.5% **Small sample.** 189 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker?window=24h) | 49 | 93.14% ±32.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker?window=7d) | 88 | 101.82% ±27.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker) | 189 | 87.65% ±17.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fang-joker?window=all) | 189 | 87.65% ±17.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [YAON JINJI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YAON%20JINJI) $254 $1,450 5.71x 2026-11-10 01:04 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [YAON JINJI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YAON%20JINJI) $254 $1,450 5.71x 2026-11-10 01:04 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 $1,402 5.52x 2026-11-05 03:12 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 $1,383 5.44x 2026-11-04 03:18 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 $1,383 5.44x 2026-11-04 03:18 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $254 $831 3.27x 2026-11-04 03:20 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $254 $831 3.27x 2026-11-04 03:18 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $254 $812 3.20x 2026-11-12 10:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Gustavo JR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gustavo%20JR) $254 $812 3.20x 2026-11-11 23:00 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [sibi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/sibi) $254 $812 3.20x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=fang-joker) [AK-47 | Frontside Misty weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $254 $22.08 0.09x 2026-11-12 10:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $254 $812 3.20x 2026-11-12 10:58 UTC [AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $254 $48.50 0.19x 2026-11-12 10:58 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $254 $40.14 0.16x 2026-11-12 10:58 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $254 $53.92 0.21x 2026-11-12 10:58 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $249 $18.36 0.07x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $249 $795 3.19x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $249 $2.51 0.01x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $249 $700 2.80x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $249 $1.78 0.01x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,450 (5.71x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.65 on average: an expected loss of $12.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt