--- title: "FEEL THE DRAGON JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FEEL THE DRAGON JOKER ($3,300.81) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.81% over 1,541 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T01:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FEEL THE DRAGON JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FEEL THE DRAGON JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker?window=all) Price · $3,300.81 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.81% · 1,541 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 39 openings · below min 7 days · 861 openings · below min 30 days · 89.81% ±5.07 1,541 openings since tracking started · 89.81% ±5.07 1,541 openings 59.5% 94.0% 128.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker?window=24h) | 39 | 93.96% ±33.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker?window=7d) | 861 | 88.41% ±6.78 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker) | 1,541 | 89.81% ±5.07 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon-joker?window=all) | 1,541 | 89.81% ±5.07 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,218 $14.6K 4.55x 2026-11-10 10:05 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,210 $14.6K 4.56x 2026-11-09 16:06 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,275 $14.6K 4.47x 2026-11-03 21:04 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,301 $14.6K 4.44x 2026-11-03 05:22 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,301 $14.6K 4.44x 2026-11-03 05:21 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,301 $14.6K 4.44x 2026-11-03 05:20 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,301 $14.6K 4.44x 2026-11-03 01:19 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,251 $14.6K 4.50x 2026-11-08 04:07 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $3,205 $14.6K 4.56x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $3,271 $12.1K 3.70x 2026-11-04 18:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=feel-the-dragon-joker) [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $3,210 $1,688 0.53x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $3,210 $142 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $3,210 $5,413 1.69x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $3,210 $5,413 1.69x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $3,210 $13.97 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $3,205 $5,360 1.67x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $3,205 $9,286 2.90x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $3,205 $143 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $3,205 $1,674 0.52x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $3,205 $143 0.04x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $14.6K (4.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.81 on average: an expected loss of $10.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt