---
title: "FEEL THE DRAGON case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FEEL THE DRAGON ($280.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 21 items with odds, observed 87.62% over 9,263 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FEEL THE DRAGON](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FEEL THE DRAGON

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon?window=all)

Price · $280.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $245.00 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.62% · 9,263 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.20% ±15.37 1,545 openings

7 days · 90.98% ±7.36 7,738 openings

30 days · 87.62% ±6.68 9,263 openings

since tracking started · 87.62% ±6.68 9,263 openings

80.5% 97.8% 115.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon?window=24h) | 1,545 | 99.20% ±15.4 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon?window=7d) | 7,738 | 90.98% ±7.36 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon) | 9,263 | 87.62% ±6.68 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/feel-the-dragon?window=all) | 9,263 | 87.62% ±6.68 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,263 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.6K | 0.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $12K | 1.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 556 | $9,362 | 6.9% | 22 | 16.7 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $8,833 | 1.4% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $8,426 | 6.9% | 22 | 18.5 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,950 | 1.6% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $6,311 | 2.1% | 2 | 7.4 | 0.27× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 323 | $5,414 | 6.8% | 29 | 28.7 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $3,775 | 6.8% | 35 | 40.8 | 0.86× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 172 | $2,867 | 6.8% | 50 | 53.7 | 0.93× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 169 | $2,821 | 6.8% | 40 | 54.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 122 | $2,042 | 6.8% | 52 | 76.0 | 0.68× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $1,685 | 6.8% | 79 | 91.7 | 0.86× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $1,328 | 6.8% | 100 | 116.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $921 | 6.8% | 99 | 167.7 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 11.6% | $159 | 7.5% | 1,233 | 1071.7 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 11.3% | $145 | 6.7% | 1,180 | 1047.6 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 14.0% | $70.80 | 4.1% | 1,340 | 1298.7 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 15.1% | $54.95 | 3.4% | 1,458 | 1400.6 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) | 18.5% | $28.18 | 2.1% | 1,670 | 1711.8 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 22.1% | $14.20 | 1.3% | 1,826 | 2049.0 | 0.89× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/feel-the-dragon`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [LUCKY CODE = JUEG](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LUCKY%20CODE%20%3D%20JUEG) $280 $14.6K 52.30x 2026-11-07 19:12 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $280 $12K 42.84x 2026-11-09 14:36 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Gyokeres23](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gyokeres23) $280 $9,659 34.50x 2026-11-04 17:06 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Gyokeres23](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gyokeres23) $280 $9,659 34.50x 2026-11-04 17:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [TANQUESILVAツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TANQUESILVA%E3%83%84) $280 $9,653 34.48x 2026-11-06 05:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [TANQUESILVAツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TANQUESILVA%E3%83%84) $280 $9,653 34.48x 2026-11-06 05:12 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $280 $9,653 34.48x 2026-11-06 05:11 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $280 $9,653 34.47x 2026-11-07 09:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $280 $9,653 34.47x 2026-11-07 09:12 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [knash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/knash) $280 $9,653 34.47x 2026-11-07 04:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=feel-the-dragon)

[M4A4 | Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/farlopero%20peek) $280 $28.18 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/farlopero%20peek) $280 $29.16 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $280 $14.32 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $280 $14.32 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $280 $70.17 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $280 $137 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $280 $14.32 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $280 $14.20 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $280 $54.95 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[AWP | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $280 $159 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $280 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $280 | 88.03% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $280 | 88.07% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $280 | 87.49% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $280 | 88.01% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $280 | 88.21% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $280 | 87.98% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $280 | 87.95% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $280 | 87.99% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $280 | 87.76% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $280 | 87.58% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $280 | 87.66% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $280 | 88.12% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $280 | 88.27% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $280 | 88.40% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $280 | 87.36% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $280 | 87.92% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 30.7% legendary 0.6% classified 34.1% restricted 1.0% red 15.1% #d32ce6 18.5% best hit $14.6K (52.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt