--- title: "FERA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "FERA ($35.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.48% over 1,976 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera rendered: 2026-11-13T04:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FERA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FERA A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera?window=all) Price · $35.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.48% · 1,976 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 96 openings · below min 7 days · 713 openings · below min 30 days · 85.48% ±4.86 1,976 openings since tracking started · 85.48% ±4.86 1,976 openings 72.0% 93.8% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera?window=24h) | 96 | 93.57% ±21.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera?window=7d) | 713 | 82.92% ±6.83 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera) | 1,976 | 85.48% ±4.86 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fera?window=all) | 1,976 | 85.48% ±4.86 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $35.00 $891 25.45x 2026-11-03 05:10 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $35.00 $646 18.45x 2026-11-05 01:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=fera) [UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) [Sephyriss SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sephyriss%20SKINS) $35.00 $5.83 0.17x 2026-11-13 03:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) [Sephyriss SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sephyriss%20SKINS) $35.00 $5.83 0.17x 2026-11-13 03:33 UTC [Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 $19.72 0.56x 2026-11-13 03:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) Hidden $35.00 $5.83 0.17x 2026-11-13 03:33 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) Hidden $35.00 $36.70 1.05x 2026-11-13 03:33 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 $18.38 0.53x 2026-11-13 03:33 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) Hidden $35.00 $6.89 0.20x 2026-11-13 03:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) [Sephyriss SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sephyriss%20SKINS) $35.00 $25.76 0.74x 2026-11-13 03:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) [Sephyriss SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sephyriss%20SKINS) $35.00 $21.62 0.62x 2026-11-13 03:24 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 $10.68 0.31x 2026-11-13 03:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $891 (25.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.48 on average: an expected loss of $14.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt