--- title: "FIESTA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "FIESTA ($60.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.66% over 1,852 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FIESTA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FIESTA A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2?window=all) Price · $60.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.66% · 1,852 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 172 openings · below min 7 days · 85.36% ±5.76 1,695 openings 30 days · 84.66% ±5.34 1,852 openings since tracking started · 84.66% ±5.34 1,852 openings 65.5% 78.8% 92.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2?window=24h) | 172 | 76.24% ±9.95 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2?window=7d) | 1,695 | 85.36% ±5.76 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2) | 1,852 | 84.66% ±5.34 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fiesta-2?window=all) | 1,852 | 84.66% ±5.34 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $60.00 $1,226 20.43x 2026-11-06 12:49 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $60.00 $1,206 20.10x 2026-11-09 12:30 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.00 $933 15.55x 2026-11-04 15:51 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.00 $916 15.26x 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.00 $903 15.05x 2026-11-07 03:28 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.00 $890 14.84x 2026-11-07 03:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=fiesta-2) [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.00 $113 1.89x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $60.00 $44.14 0.74x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $60.00 $70.77 1.18x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-battle-scarred) [BOT Je Prim](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BOT%20Je%20Prim) $60.00 $57.49 0.96x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [ARMI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ARMI) $60.00 $22.76 0.38x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $60.00 $70.77 1.18x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $60.00 $19.48 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [M4A4 | Falak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-battle-scarred) Hidden $60.00 $15.64 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC [Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $60.00 $12.08 0.20x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $60.00 $51.82 0.86x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,226 (20.43x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.66 on average: an expected loss of $15.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt