--- title: "FIRE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FIRE JOKER ($899.67) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 312.32% over 4 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FIRE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FIRE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker?window=all) Price · $899.67 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 312.32% · 4 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 424.0% 848.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker?window=24h) | 4 | 312.32% ±535.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker?window=7d) | 4 | 312.32% ±535.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker) | 4 | 312.32% ±535.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire-joker?window=all) | 4 | 312.32% ±535.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $900 $10.2K 11.30x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $900 $813 0.90x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=fire-joker) [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $900 $813 0.90x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $900 $10.2K 11.30x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $900 $101 0.11x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $900 $156 0.17x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $10.2K (11.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 312.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $312.32 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt