---
title: "FIRE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FIRE ($101.11) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 51 items with odds, observed 81.44% over 1,115 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FIRE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FIRE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire?window=all)

Price · $101.11

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $88.47 from 51 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.44% · 1,115 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 81.81% ±10.01 875 openings

30 days · 81.44% ±8.89 1,115 openings

since tracking started · 81.44% ±8.89 1,115 openings

-0.5% 77.8% 156.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire?window=24h) | 12 | 74.76% ±80.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire?window=7d) | 875 | 81.81% ±10.0 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire) | 1,115 | 81.44% ±8.89 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/fire?window=all) | 1,115 | 81.44% ±8.89 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 51 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $10.2K | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,124 | $2,232 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 847 | $1,685 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $1,425 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 412 | $813 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,351 | $794 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 397 | $783 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 348 | $687 | 2.2% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.56× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 398 | $428 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 90 | $327 | 4.1% | 7 | 12.4 | 0.56× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $312 | 4.1% | 7 | 13.0 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 380 | $278 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $263 | 4.1% | 8 | 15.4 | 0.52× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $192 | 7.0% | 31 | 35.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $179 | 7.0% | 37 | 38.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $173 | 7.0% | 55 | 40.0 | 1.38× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 310 | $156 | 0.6% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $156 | 7.0% | 25 | 44.4 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $154 | 2.5% | 10 | 16.1 | 0.62× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $127 | 2.8% | 16 | 21.6 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $127 | 3.1% | 12 | 24.5 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $126 | 2.6% | 20 | 20.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $107 | 3.5% | 34 | 32.1 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $102 | 3.7% | 24 | 35.7 | 0.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $101 | 7.2% | 92 | 69.6 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 151 | $83.03 | 0.6% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $82.85 | 0.8% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $81.04 | 2.5% | 23 | 30.2 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $70.80 | 2.4% | 28 | 33.9 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $66.50 | 0.6% | 6 | 9.2 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $58.32 | 0.9% | 7 | 15.1 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $54.81 | 0.8% | 13 | 14.0 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $54.51 | 0.9% | 13 | 16.8 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $54.15 | 0.9% | 14 | 16.9 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $53.32 | 0.8% | 12 | 14.6 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $43.82 | 0.9% | 7 | 19.6 | 0.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $42.81 | 0.8% | 9 | 17.8 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $41.80 | 0.8% | 16 | 18.5 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $38.16 | 0.3% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $37.09 | 0.8% | 12 | 22.1 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $27.05 | 0.2% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $23.33 | 0.2% | 3 | 8.7 | 0.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $17.64 | 0.4% | 22 | 23.9 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $12.66 | 0.5% | 19 | 39.3 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $11.17 | 0.5% | 37 | 47.4 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $10.77 | 0.3% | 23 | 27.6 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $10.60 | 0.3% | 24 | 32.4 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $7.50 | 0.4% | 40 | 54.4 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $7.50 | 0.4% | 40 | 54.4 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $6.76 | 0.4% | 38 | 55.6 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $5.81 | 0.4% | 53 | 69.9 | 0.76× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/fire`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $101 $1,704 16.85x 2026-11-05 04:39 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [9K GW Code: BARU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/9K%20GW%20Code%3A%20BARU) $101 $841 8.31x 2026-11-03 20:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [9K GW Code: BARU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/9K%20GW%20Code%3A%20BARU) $101 $841 8.31x 2026-11-03 20:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $101 $833 8.24x 2026-11-08 20:54 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $101 $801 7.92x 2026-11-08 20:54 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $101 $791 7.82x 2026-11-08 06:25 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [CODE: ELTUCUCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%3A%20ELTUCUCS) $101 $689 6.82x 2026-11-04 03:44 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [CODE: ELTUCUCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%3A%20ELTUCUCS) $101 $689 6.82x 2026-11-04 03:43 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $101 $688 6.81x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $101 $687 6.80x 2026-11-08 21:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=fire)

[M4A4 | Royal Paladin weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin) [Finn12](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Finn12) $101 $104 1.03x 2026-11-11 06:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider) [Euzasrien](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Euzasrien) $101 $59.80 0.59x 2026-11-10 23:11 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed) [Limon](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Limon) $101 $109 1.08x 2026-11-10 19:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) [Limon](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Limon) $101 $8.09 0.08x 2026-11-10 19:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $101 $8.09 0.08x 2026-11-10 19:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $101 $5.81 0.06x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) Hidden $101 $41.80 0.41x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $101 $192 1.90x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) Hidden $101 $5.81 0.06x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) Hidden $101 $53.32 0.53x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $101 | 87.50% | 51 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $101 | 87.21% | 51 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $101 | 87.37% | 51 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $101 | 87.73% | 51 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $101 | 87.46% | 51 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $101 | 87.51% | 51 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $101 | 87.70% | 51 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $101 | 87.52% | 51 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $101 | 87.64% | 51 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $101 | 87.21% | 51 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $101 | 87.30% | 51 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $101 | 87.25% | 51 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $101 | 87.57% | 51 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $101 | 87.70% | 51 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $101 | 87.27% | 51 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $101 | 87.46% | 51 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $101 | 87.21% | 51 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $101 | 87.27% | 51 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 52.9% restricted 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% gold 0.2% legendary 0.3% rare 5.4% red 4.4% Legendary 1.5% pink 19.3% uncommon 3.5% Classified 4.3% classified 7.8% best hit $1,704 (16.85x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt