--- title: "FLAME case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "FLAME ($200.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 77.99% over 1,916 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FLAME](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FLAME A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame?window=all) Price · $200.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $175.00 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.99% · 1,916 openings, odds method Variance · 13.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 127.70% ±28.00 648 openings 7 days · 79.63% ±17.47 1,667 openings 30 days · 77.99% ±16.47 1,916 openings since tracking started · 77.99% ±16.47 1,916 openings 61.0% 108.7% 156.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame?window=24h) | 648 | 127.70% ±28.0 | +2.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame?window=7d) | 1,667 | 79.63% ±17.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame) | 1,916 | 77.99% ±16.5 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flame?window=all) | 1,916 | 77.99% ±16.5 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,916 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $8,833 | 20.2% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $6,040 | 19.7% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.82× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $550 | 19.8% | 119 | 120.7 | 0.99× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $418 | 19.9% | 176 | 159.4 | 1.10× | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-field-tested) | 16.8% | $207 | 19.9% | 271 | 321.7 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 67.6% | $1.54 | 0.6% | 1,336 | 1295.6 | 1.03× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/flame`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 $8,833 44.17x 2026-11-10 21:09 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 $8,833 44.17x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [zack](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/zack) $200 $8,833 44.17x 2026-11-10 17:52 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [zack](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/zack) $200 $8,833 44.17x 2026-11-10 17:51 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 $8,833 44.17x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $200 $6,040 30.20x 2026-11-10 21:09 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Kryxar](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kryxar) $200 $6,040 30.20x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [DaemonCS\_YT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DaemonCS_YT) $200 $6,040 30.20x 2026-11-10 20:37 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [DaemonCS\_YT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DaemonCS_YT) $200 $6,040 30.20x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $200 $6,040 30.20x 2026-11-10 17:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=flame) [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [Piotr Barmański skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Piotr%20Barma%C5%84ski%20skins.army) $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $200 $207 1.03x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) Hidden $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) Hidden $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) Hidden $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) Hidden $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [Piotr Barmański skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Piotr%20Barma%C5%84ski%20skins.army) $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [Siyanur26](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Siyanur26) $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [Siyanur26](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Siyanur26) $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [Siyanur26](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Siyanur26) $200 $1.54 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $200 | 87.49% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $200 | 87.48% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $200 | 87.94% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $200 | 87.37% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $200 | 87.86% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $200 | 87.31% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $200 | 87.26% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $200 | 87.18% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $200 | 87.55% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $200 | 87.53% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $200 | 87.08% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $200 | 87.23% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $200 | 87.68% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $200 | 87.18% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $200 | 87.02% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.5% contraband 0.6% legendary 6.3% violet 67.6% best hit $8,833 (44.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt