--- title: "FLAMES JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FLAMES JOKER ($13.24) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.55% over 6,885 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T16:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FLAMES JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FLAMES JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker?window=all) Price · $13.24 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.55% · 6,885 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 676 openings · below min 7 days · 91.92% ±5.77 6,254 openings 30 days · 89.55% ±5.43 6,885 openings since tracking started · 89.55% ±5.43 6,885 openings 73.5% 90.8% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker?window=24h) | 676 | 90.71% ±16.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker?window=7d) | 6,254 | 91.92% ±5.77 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker) | 6,885 | 89.55% ±5.43 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flames-joker?window=all) | 6,885 | 89.55% ±5.43 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=flames-joker) [AWP | Capillary weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary) [MBG Envanteri](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MBG%20Envanteri) $12.91 $1.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [Anton](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Anton) $12.91 $2.14 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [AWP | Exothermic weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $12.91 $3.72 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [MP9 | Urban Sovereign weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $12.91 $1.20 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Firebreathing weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $12.91 $1.61 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $12.91 $3.44 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [R8 Revolver | Junk Yard weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $12.91 $0.34 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-well-worn) Hidden $12.88 $1.30 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) Hidden $12.88 $0.85 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) Hidden $12.88 $0.44 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.55 on average: an expected loss of $10.45 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt