--- title: "FLASH JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FLASH JOKER ($265.78) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 79.71% over 346 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T22:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FLASH JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FLASH JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker?window=all) Price · $265.78 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 79.71% · 346 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 333 openings · below min 30 days · 346 openings · below min since tracking started · 346 openings · below min 51.0% 90.3% 129.5% **Small sample.** 346 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker?window=24h) | 44 | 90.34% ±38.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker?window=7d) | 333 | 81.72% ±12.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker) | 346 | 79.71% ±12.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash-joker?window=all) | 346 | 79.71% ±12.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [√Sir Gregor Clegane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%88%9ASir%20Gregor%20Clegane) $265 $1,192 4.49x 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $262 $1,174 4.48x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $262 $1,174 4.48x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 $1,167 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 $1,167 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $257 $1,162 4.51x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $264 $1,158 4.38x 2026-11-05 13:57 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $255 $1,124 4.41x 2026-11-10 21:37 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $255 $1,124 4.41x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $259 $1,115 4.30x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=flash-joker) [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [gustp14](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gustp14) $262 $65.44 0.25x 2026-11-11 21:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $259 $48.36 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $259 $710 2.74x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $259 $596 2.30x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [gustp14](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gustp14) $259 $68.15 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $262 $680 2.60x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $259 $40.33 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $259 $107 0.41x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $259 $107 0.41x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) Hidden $259 $5.70 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,192 (4.49x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 79.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $79.71 on average: an expected loss of $20.29 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt