---
title: "FLASH case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FLASH ($43.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 43 items with odds, observed 88.45% over 6,237 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FLASH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FLASH

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash?window=all)

Price · $43.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $37.63 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.45% · 6,237 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.48% ±15.11 1,029 openings

7 days · 86.94% ±7.15 4,746 openings

30 days · 88.45% ±6.26 6,237 openings

since tracking started · 88.45% ±6.26 6,237 openings

73.5% 89.3% 105.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash?window=24h) | 1,029 | 89.48% ±15.1 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash?window=7d) | 4,746 | 86.94% ±7.15 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash) | 6,237 | 88.45% ±6.26 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/flash?window=all) | 6,237 | 88.45% ±6.26 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,237 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 323 | $1,124 | 9.3% | 20 | 19.3 | 1.03× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 208 | $715 | 9.1% | 32 | 29.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $688 | 9.1% | 27 | 31.2 | 0.87× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $550 | 9.2% | 36 | 39.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $214 | 9.2% | 121 | 100.4 | 1.20× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $121 | 4.9% | 91 | 95.4 | 0.95× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $109 | 4.9% | 121 | 106.7 | 1.13× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $87.93 | 4.9% | 128 | 131.6 | 0.97× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $78.84 | 1.1% | 13 | 32.4 | 0.40× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $73.77 | 1.5% | 38 | 47.4 | 0.80× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $71.50 | 1.2% | 27 | 39.9 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $70.80 | 2.1% | 49 | 71.1 | 0.69× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 141 | $67.92 | 1.3% | 37 | 44.3 | 0.84× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $65.58 | 1.7% | 54 | 59.9 | 0.90× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $65.58 | 4.9% | 189 | 175.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $64.36 | 1.4% | 25 | 49.3 | 0.51× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $62.91 | 1.8% | 49 | 65.5 | 0.75× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $62.17 | 1.1% | 27 | 39.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $54.87 | 1.2% | 36 | 51.8 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $54.24 | 2.8% | 92 | 120.4 | 0.76× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $51.11 | 1.3% | 51 | 59.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $50.37 | 1.2% | 37 | 55.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $48.65 | 1.2% | 47 | 59.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $48.43 | 1.4% | 41 | 66.1 | 0.62× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $48.15 | 1.2% | 37 | 60.5 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $47.03 | 1.3% | 51 | 63.6 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $38.82 | 0.2% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $15.46 | 0.2% | 28 | 31.2 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $14.35 | 0.3% | 28 | 46.2 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $12.18 | 1.1% | 158 | 210.2 | 0.75× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $8.07 | 0.4% | 99 | 117.9 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $7.90 | 0.3% | 46 | 90.4 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $6.69 | 0.4% | 113 | 157.2 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 10.9% | $5.84 | 1.7% | 526 | 682.3 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $4.55 | 0.6% | 207 | 290.6 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $4.51 | 0.6% | 222 | 295.0 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.44 | 0.6% | 216 | 302.5 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.18 | 0.6% | 228 | 336.8 | 0.68× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $4.14 | 0.6% | 262 | 342.4 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $4.08 | 0.6% | 283 | 350.5 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.26 | 0.5% | 273 | 372.3 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.25 | 0.5% | 277 | 374.2 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $2.67 | 0.6% | 373 | 509.6 | 0.73× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/flash`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.00 $1,198 27.87x 2026-11-04 04:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [ZoeZ27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZoeZ27) $43.00 $1,198 27.87x 2026-11-04 04:27 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [ZoeZ27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZoeZ27) $43.00 $1,198 27.87x 2026-11-04 04:26 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [ZoeZ27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZoeZ27) $43.00 $1,198 27.87x 2026-11-04 04:24 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [ZoeZ27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZoeZ27) $43.00 $1,198 27.87x 2026-11-04 04:24 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.00 $1,192 27.72x 2026-11-05 07:10 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $43.00 $1,192 27.72x 2026-11-04 20:38 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $43.00 $1,192 27.72x 2026-11-04 20:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [CHJNA4Q](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CHJNA4Q) $43.00 $1,186 27.58x 2026-11-05 21:42 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [???????? \[600hz\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%5B600hz%5D) $43.00 $1,174 27.31x 2026-11-09 01:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=flash)

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $43.00 $7.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) Hidden $43.00 $2.69 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $43.00 $5.54 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $43.00 $7.33 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $43.00 $4.89 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $43.00 $5.23 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $43.00 $688 16.00x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-factory-new) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $43.00 $12.38 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) Hidden $43.00 $2.69 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.00 $5.54 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $43.00 | 87.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $43.00 | 87.91% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $43.00 | 87.87% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $43.00 | 88.20% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $43.00 | 87.92% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $43.00 | 87.70% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $43.00 | 87.57% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $43.00 | 87.49% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $43.00 | 87.14% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $43.00 | 88.19% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $43.00 | 87.65% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $43.00 | 87.56% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $43.00 | 87.50% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $43.00 | 87.96% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $43.00 | 88.08% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $43.00 | 87.89% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.00 | 88.08% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 16.0% epic 0.5% legendary 0.6% gold 6.4% extraordinary 2.1% Covert 1.9% classified 13.0% Mythical 11.3% Legendary 5.6% #d32ee6 2.5% violet 25.1% pink 9.4% Classified 5.6% best hit $1,198 (27.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt