--- title: "FORG1 JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FORG1 JOKER ($119.86) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.92% over 328 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FORG1 JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FORG1 JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker?window=all) Price · $119.86 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.92% · 328 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 35 openings · below min 7 days · 259 openings · below min 30 days · 328 openings · below min since tracking started · 328 openings · below min 64.0% 142.5% 221.0% **Small sample.** 328 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker?window=24h) | 35 | 142.59% ±77.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker?window=7d) | 259 | 90.16% ±23.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker) | 328 | 87.92% ±20.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1-joker?window=all) | 328 | 87.92% ±20.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [Aq7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aq7) $120 $1,019 8.52x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $120 $1,019 8.52x 2026-11-10 05:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $120 $1,019 8.52x 2026-11-10 05:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $120 $1,019 8.52x 2026-11-10 02:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [Nixxxtor](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nixxxtor) $121 $1,018 8.44x 2026-11-08 15:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [Aq7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aq7) $119 $1,007 8.45x 2026-11-10 21:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $119 $1,007 8.45x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $119 $1,007 8.45x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) Hidden $118 $962 8.15x 2026-11-05 22:13 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [Nixxxtor](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nixxxtor) $119 $956 8.02x 2026-11-08 15:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=forg1-joker) [P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $120 $12.14 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Snack Attack weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $120 $19.87 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) Hidden $119 $1.22 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $119 $44.41 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) Hidden $119 $45.41 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) Hidden $119 $9.32 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $119 $8.37 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $119 $572 4.79x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $119 $19.72 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) Hidden $119 $45.41 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,019 (8.52x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.92 on average: an expected loss of $12.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt