---
title: "FORG1 case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FORG1 ($11.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 69 items with odds, observed 81.87% over 1,776 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FORG1](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FORG1

A case on Key-Drop (FELIPEIRA), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1?window=all)

Price · $11.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $10.06 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.87% · 1,776 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.20% ±15.99 306 openings

7 days · 83.46% ±6.96 1,622 openings

30 days · 81.87% ±6.65 1,776 openings

since tracking started · 81.87% ±6.65 1,776 openings

74.5% 91.8% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1?window=24h) | 306 | 92.20% ±16.0 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1?window=7d) | 1,622 | 83.46% ±6.96 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1) | 1,776 | 81.87% ±6.65 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/forg1?window=all) | 1,776 | 81.87% ±6.65 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,776 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,007 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $572 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $393 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $231 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $173 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $118 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $97.36 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $66.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $57.86 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $54.95 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $53.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $50.31 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $50.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $48.53 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $46.46 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $43.99 | 0.7% | 7 | 2.7 | 2.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $42.81 | 3.0% | 11 | 12.4 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $41.80 | 3.1% | 3 | 13.1 | 0.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $37.09 | 3.4% | 13 | 16.5 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $35.40 | 3.5% | 8 | 17.6 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $30.97 | 4.0% | 18 | 22.9 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $30.97 | 4.0% | 19 | 22.9 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $21.41 | 3.4% | 12 | 28.4 | 0.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $19.86 | 5.4% | 43 | 48.3 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $19.78 | 3.7% | 13 | 33.4 | 0.39× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $19.71 | 3.7% | 29 | 33.6 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $19.60 | 5.4% | 32 | 49.6 | 0.65× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $18.32 | 1.7% | 11 | 16.3 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $13.55 | 2.8% | 22 | 37.3 | 0.59× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $13.24 | 5.5% | 50 | 74.8 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $12.59 | 3.0% | 19 | 43.2 | 0.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $12.38 | 3.1% | 19 | 44.8 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $12.18 | 3.1% | 23 | 46.2 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $12.03 | 3.4% | 30 | 50.8 | 0.59× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $11.25 | 1.5% | 11 | 23.8 | 0.46× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $11.14 | 3.8% | 41 | 60.7 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $9.95 | 2.5% | 32 | 44.6 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $9.66 | 1.3% | 19 | 23.4 | 0.81× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $9.64 | 2.1% | 21 | 38.0 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| The End (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $9.60 | 2.5% | 27 | 45.8 | 0.59× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $9.44 | 2.1% | 30 | 39.6 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $9.32 | 2.5% | 35 | 48.7 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $8.46 | 0.6% | 8 | 13.1 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $6.59 | 0.4% | 7 | 11.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $6.54 | 0.4% | 3 | 11.9 | 0.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $6.22 | 0.4% | 9 | 12.8 | 0.70× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $5.69 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $5.50 | 1.0% | 21 | 31.6 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-well-worn) | 1 in 114 | $5.00 | 0.4% | 7 | 15.6 | 0.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.53 | 0.9% | 26 | 35.9 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $4.45 | 0.5% | 8 | 19.0 | 0.42× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $4.36 | 0.1% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $4.26 | 0.5% | 13 | 20.2 | 0.64× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $2.81 | 0.2% | 5 | 11.4 | 0.44× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $2.37 | 0.2% | 7 | 13.0 | 0.54× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $1.84 | 0.2% | 15 | 18.5 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.56 | 0.2% | 16 | 21.1 | 0.76× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $1.46 | 0.2% | 16 | 28.1 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $1.22 | 0.2% | 25 | 31.3 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $1.22 | 0.2% | 12 | 31.3 | 0.38× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.15 | 0.3% | 40 | 47.8 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $1.12 | 0.3% | 27 | 40.7 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 27 | 35.9 | 0.75× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $1.10 | 0.2% | 26 | 33.9 | 0.77× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.95 | 0.3% | 45 | 65.0 | 0.69× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.89 | 0.3% | 31 | 58.8 | 0.53× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $0.88 | 0.2% | 33 | 48.7 | 0.68× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.82 | 0.2% | 38 | 54.3 | 0.70× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.65 | 0.4% | 67 | 106.7 | 0.63× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/forg1`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=forg1)

[XM1014 | Solitude weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude) [AlaneKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AlaneKK) $11.50 $0.95 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[XM1014 | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-field-tested) [AlaneKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AlaneKK) $11.50 $0.65 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) Hidden $11.50 $11.90 1.03x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.50 $13.34 1.16x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.50 $1.16 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.50 $9.32 0.81x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) Hidden $11.50 $41.90 3.64x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[AWP | The End weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $11.50 $10.36 0.90x 2026-11-11 10:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $11.50 $20.24 1.76x 2026-11-11 10:37 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $11.50 $32.20 2.80x 2026-11-11 10:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $11.50 | 87.50% | 69 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $11.50 | 87.63% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $11.50 | 87.54% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.50 | 87.48% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $11.50 | 87.59% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $11.50 | 87.71% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $11.50 | 87.55% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $11.50 | 87.30% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $11.50 | 87.53% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $11.50 | 87.55% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $11.50 | 87.59% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $11.50 | 87.20% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $11.50 | 87.34% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $11.50 | 87.42% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $11.50 | 87.25% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $11.50 | 87.43% | 69 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.50 | 87.82% | 69 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.9% red 5.3% gold 0.1% rare 0.1% Mythical 0.9% Ancient 0.1% classified 18.4% blue 9.0% pink 18.3% Rare 5.5% restricted 19.4% Legendary 1.3% #d32ee6 2.8% #8847ff 11.6% violet 5.1% mil spec 1.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt