---
title: "FREYA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FREYA ($20.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 32 items with odds, observed 85.09% over 2,589 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [FREYA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · FREYA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $17.50 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.09% · 2,589 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.75% ±25.23 292 openings

7 days · 86.64% ±9.28 2,237 openings

30 days · 85.09% ±8.65 2,589 openings

since tracking started · 85.09% ±8.65 2,589 openings

66.0% 91.8% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya?window=24h) | 292 | 91.75% ±25.2 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya?window=7d) | 2,237 | 86.64% ±9.28 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya) | 2,589 | 85.09% ±8.65 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/freya?window=all) | 2,589 | 85.09% ±8.65 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,589 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,118 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 319 | $339 | 6.1% | 13 | 8.1 | 1.60× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 265 | $280 | 6.1% | 13 | 9.8 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 163 | $172 | 6.1% | 9 | 15.9 | 0.57× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $145 | 6.0% | 19 | 18.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $139 | 6.0% | 17 | 19.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $92.38 | 6.0% | 16 | 29.6 | 0.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176 | $89.33 | 2.9% | 8 | 14.7 | 0.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $82.41 | 3.1% | 10 | 17.3 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $72.60 | 3.0% | 12 | 18.7 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 134 | $71.39 | 3.0% | 14 | 19.3 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 243 | $70.80 | 1.7% | 4 | 10.6 | 0.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $70.60 | 2.9% | 11 | 18.5 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $64.31 | 3.2% | 16 | 22.3 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $59.97 | 6.0% | 46 | 45.6 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $54.81 | 3.0% | 12 | 24.6 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $54.24 | 2.2% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $54.19 | 1.3% | 6 | 10.6 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 163 | $53.97 | 1.9% | 11 | 15.9 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $53.32 | 3.1% | 14 | 26.0 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 137 | $53.21 | 2.2% | 10 | 18.8 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 141 | $50.22 | 2.0% | 13 | 18.4 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 131 | $48.53 | 2.1% | 7 | 19.7 | 0.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 177 | $46.10 | 1.5% | 8 | 14.7 | 0.55× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $42.85 | 1.6% | 8 | 16.9 | 0.47× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $40.70 | 1.7% | 11 | 18.8 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $35.74 | 2.4% | 21 | 30.3 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $23.44 | 3.6% | 47 | 70.5 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.15 | 1.7% | 109 | 182.9 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $3.97 | 1.8% | 119 | 200.6 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $3.96 | 1.8% | 126 | 201.4 | 0.63× |
| [Sticker \| One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) | 55.3% | $0.92 | 2.9% | 1,472 | 1431.3 | 1.03× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/freya`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=freya)

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $20.00 $4.02 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) [rezende2.0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rezende2.0) $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) [rezende2.0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rezende2.0) $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) [rezende2.0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rezende2.0) $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) Hidden $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) Hidden $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $3.96 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) Hidden $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | One Sting sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-one-sting) Hidden $20.00 $0.92 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $20.00 | 87.58% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $20.00 | 87.55% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $20.00 | 87.46% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $20.00 | 87.68% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $20.00 | 87.33% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $20.00 | 87.71% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $20.00 | 87.36% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.86% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $20.00 | 87.60% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $20.00 | 87.67% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $20.00 | 87.79% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $20.00 | 87.91% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $20.00 | 87.23% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $20.00 | 87.19% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $20.00 | 87.25% | 32 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.40% | 32 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.00 | 87.30% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 14.2% extraordinary 0.3% red 1.3% rare 1.1% Covert 0.6% Ancient 0.7% classified 11.0% pink 15.5% #4b69ff 55.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt