--- title: "GOLD SHOT JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "GOLD SHOT JOKER ($5.41) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.80% over 8,612 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T22:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [GOLD SHOT JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · GOLD SHOT JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker?window=all) Price · $5.41 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.80% · 8,612 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 816 openings · below min 7 days · 84.48% ±5.52 6,621 openings 30 days · 83.80% ±4.80 8,612 openings since tracking started · 83.80% ±4.80 8,612 openings 76.0% 93.3% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker?window=24h) | 816 | 93.29% ±16.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker?window=7d) | 6,621 | 84.48% ±5.52 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker) | 8,612 | 83.80% ±4.80 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot-joker?window=all) | 8,612 | 83.80% ±4.80 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=gold-shot-joker) [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [Fifs05](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fifs05) $5.29 $53.31 10.08x 2026-11-11 22:18 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.19 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.19 $0.14 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [Fifs05](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fifs05) $5.19 $51.31 9.89x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) [Fifs05](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fifs05) $5.29 $0.18 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:16 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [Samel](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Samel) $5.29 $22.63 4.28x 2026-11-11 22:16 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $5.19 $51.31 9.89x 2026-11-11 22:15 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.19 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:15 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.19 $0.30 0.06x 2026-11-11 22:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) [Fifs05](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fifs05) $5.19 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.80 on average: an expected loss of $16.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt