---
title: "GOLD SHOT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "GOLD SHOT ($0.20) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 21 items with odds, observed 81.91% over 79.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [GOLD SHOT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · GOLD SHOT

A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot?window=all)

Price · $0.20

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.17 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.91% · 79.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.44% ±2.49 10.5K openings

7 days · 81.76% ±1.02 63.9K openings

30 days · 81.91% ±0.92 79.6K openings

since tracking started · 81.91% ±0.92 79.6K openings

79.5% 83.8% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.99% – 82.83%, 79,554 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot?window=24h) | 10.5K | 82.44% ±2.49 | −3.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot?window=7d) | 63.9K | 81.76% ±1.02 | −10.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot) | 79.6K | 81.91% ±0.92 | −12.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gold-shot?window=all) | 79.6K | 81.91% ±0.92 | −12.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $53.67 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $22.18 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.48 | 0.4% | 2 | 8.0 | 0.25× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $4.04 | 0.5% | 5 | 15.9 | 0.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $1.43 | 0.2% | 6 | 23.9 | 0.25× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $1.31 | 0.2% | 8 | 23.9 | 0.33× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $0.82 | 6.1% | 1,065 | 1037.8 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.41 | 6.1% | 1,261 | 2074.8 | 0.61× |
| [Sticker \| Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) | 1 in 38 | $0.41 | 6.1% | 1,305 | 2074.8 | 0.63× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-monarch-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.32 | 6.1% | 1,611 | 2658.2 | 0.61× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.30 | 6.1% | 1,729 | 2836.0 | 0.61× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.30 | 2.9% | 204 | 1343.9 | 0.15× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $0.27 | 3.2% | 474 | 1658.7 | 0.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.20 | 6.1% | 4,488 | 4253.2 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 10.4% | $0.17 | 10.1% | 12,155 | 8260.0 | 1.47× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $0.14 | 8.6% | 7,706 | 8586.8 | 0.90× |
| [P250 \| Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $0.14 | 8.6% | 8,130 | 8587.6 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $0.12 | 7.6% | 8,470 | 8856.2 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $0.11 | 7.1% | 10,166 | 9011.7 | 1.13× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $0.11 | 7.1% | 9,086 | 9011.7 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 11.8% | $0.09 | 6.1% | 9,560 | 9379.9 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/gold-shot`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=gold-shot)

[P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) [kisvki.99](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kisvki.99) $0.20 $0.14 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC

[P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) [ego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ego) $0.20 $0.14 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) [xELTATAx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xELTATAx) $0.20 $0.14 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) [gotaluv\_ponur](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gotaluv_ponur) $0.20 $0.12 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) [ego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ego) $0.20 $0.30 1.50x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) [Munh](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Munh) $0.20 $0.14 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-minimal-wear) [n1troX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/n1troX) $0.20 $0.14 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-minimal-wear) [n1troX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/n1troX) $0.20 $0.14 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) [lol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/lol) $0.20 $0.12 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [Elpatriko](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elpatriko) $0.20 $0.41 2.05x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $0.20 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.20 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.20 | 87.04% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.20 | 88.08% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.20 | 86.73% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.20 | 83.99% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.20 | 84.63% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.20 | 87.28% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.20 | 85.34% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.20 | 86.75% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.20 | 86.74% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.20 | 89.51% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.20 | 88.95% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:37 UTC | $0.20 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.20 | 92.26% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.20 | 89.64% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.20 | 89.06% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.20 | 88.00% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.20 | 87.62% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% pink 2.6% #8847ff 0.0% violet 3.9% blue 61.5% light blue 10.4% milspec 21.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt