--- title: "GOLDADER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "GOLDADER ($10.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 82.04% over 2,342 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader rendered: 2026-11-11T16:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [GOLDADER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · GOLDADER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader?window=all) Price · $10.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 82.04% · 2,342 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 266 openings · below min 7 days · 79.64% ±4.53 1,705 openings 30 days · 82.04% ±5.59 2,342 openings since tracking started · 82.04% ±5.59 2,342 openings 65.5% 80.0% 94.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader?window=24h) | 266 | 80.00% ±13.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader?window=7d) | 1,705 | 79.64% ±4.53 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader) | 2,342 | 82.04% ±5.59 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/goldader?window=all) | 2,342 | 82.04% ±5.59 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=goldader) [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil) [Die.MERKUR.Sonne](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Die.MERKUR.Sonne) $10.00 $2.92 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-battle-scarred) [Die.MERKUR.Sonne](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Die.MERKUR.Sonne) $10.00 $2.28 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 $3.44 0.34x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $6.16 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $3.40 0.34x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil) [Greyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Greyyy) $10.00 $2.92 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [MP7 | Fade weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade) [Greyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Greyyy) $10.00 $9.34 0.93x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [Greyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Greyyy) $10.00 $1.33 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) [Greyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Greyyy) $10.00 $4.29 0.43x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily) [Greyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Greyyy) $10.00 $8.47 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.04 on average: an expected loss of $17.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt