--- title: "GRADIENT JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "GRADIENT JOKER ($76.87) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.56% over 939 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T16:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [GRADIENT JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · GRADIENT JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker?window=all) Price · $76.87 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.56% · 939 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 512 openings · below min 30 days · 939 openings · below min since tracking started · 939 openings · below min 30.5% 61.0% 91.5% **Small sample.** 939 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker?window=24h) | 42 | 60.97% ±29.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker?window=7d) | 512 | 75.72% ±9.69 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker) | 939 | 81.56% ±7.36 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient-joker?window=all) | 939 | 81.56% ±7.36 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=gradient-joker) [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $76.38 $20.79 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $77.28 $2.01 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $77.28 $19.60 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $76.38 $20.79 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [Sticker | Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $76.38 $0.66 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-battle-scarred) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $76.38 $0.91 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [Sticker | Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $78.28 $0.66 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [Sticker | Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) Hidden $78.28 $0.66 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $78.28 $2.01 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-battle-scarred) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $78.28 $0.83 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.56 on average: an expected loss of $18.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt