---
title: "GRADIENT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "GRADIENT ($3.10) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 86.25% over 5,684 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [GRADIENT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · GRADIENT

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient?window=all)

Price · $3.10

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.71 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.25% · 5,684 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.07% ±27.72 561 openings

7 days · 85.10% ±9.66 4,795 openings

30 days · 86.25% ±8.88 5,684 openings

since tracking started · 86.25% ±8.88 5,684 openings

70.5% 99.0% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient?window=24h) | 561 | 99.07% ±27.7 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient?window=7d) | 4,795 | 85.10% ±9.66 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient) | 5,684 | 86.25% ±8.88 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/gradient?window=all) | 5,684 | 86.25% ±8.88 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,692 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,316 | $263 | 7.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $219 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $123 | 7.3% | 15 | 9.1 | 1.65× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $110 | 7.3% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $19.60 | 7.3% | 54 | 57.1 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 175 | $13.33 | 2.8% | 25 | 32.5 | 0.77× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $8.39 | 25.7% | 340 | 472.1 | 0.72× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 14.5% | $2.01 | 10.7% | 840 | 824.4 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) | 15.3% | $1.76 | 9.9% | 813 | 872.6 | 0.93× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 16.4% | $1.48 | 9.0% | 1,045 | 935.3 | 1.12× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-battle-scarred) | 20.7% | $0.83 | 6.3% | 1,135 | 1178.7 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) | 22.8% | $0.66 | 5.5% | 1,285 | 1294.9 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/gradient`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.10 $247 79.65x 2026-11-03 08:37 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [Fan4Haze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fan4Haze) $3.10 $242 78.09x 2026-11-08 23:23 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [Fan4Haze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fan4Haze) $3.10 $242 78.09x 2026-11-08 23:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=gradient)

[XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-battle-scarred) [ÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%87ORAPHIRSIZI%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $3.10 $0.83 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.10 $1.48 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-battle-scarred) [ÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%87ORAPHIRSIZI%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $3.10 $0.83 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $3.10 $1.48 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[Sticker | Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $3.10 $0.66 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $3.10 $1.48 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[Sticker | Rainbow Route sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rainbow-route) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $3.10 $0.66 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $3.10 $2.01 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $3.10 $1.48 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-battle-scarred) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $3.10 $0.83 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $3.10 | 87.50% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.10 | 87.50% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.10 | 87.07% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.10 | 87.13% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.10 | 87.98% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.10 | 87.83% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.10 | 88.12% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.10 | 88.11% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.10 | 88.00% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.10 | 87.89% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.10 | 87.10% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.10 | 87.65% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.10 | 87.25% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.10 | 87.25% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.10 | 88.14% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.10 | 87.80% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.10 | 86.96% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.10 | 87.89% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% epic 0.0% mil spec 1.0% restricted 23.3% #4b69ff 15.3% classified 16.4% blue 20.7% violet 22.8% best hit $247 (79.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt