--- title: "HEATONCS JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "HEATONCS JOKER ($392.58) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 106.00% over 131 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T06:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HEATONCS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HEATONCS JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker?window=all) Price · $392.58 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 106.00% · 131 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 13 openings · below min 7 days · 79 openings · below min 30 days · 131 openings · below min since tracking started · 131 openings · below min 5.0% 83.0% 161.0% **Small sample.** 131 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker?window=24h) | 13 | 47.25% ±41.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker?window=7d) | 79 | 112.80% ±47.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker) | 131 | 106.00% ±33.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs-joker?window=all) | 131 | 106.00% ±33.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [JoniNeo (ESP)](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JoniNeo%20%28ESP%29) $393 $2,804 7.14x 2026-11-06 04:08 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $393 $2,804 7.14x 2026-11-05 03:00 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $393 $2,804 7.14x 2026-11-05 03:00 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $393 $2,804 7.14x 2026-11-05 03:00 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $387 $2,792 7.22x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $387 $2,792 7.22x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $387 $2,792 7.22x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $387 $2,792 7.22x 2026-11-09 21:53 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [pele27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pele27) $387 $2,792 7.22x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [pele27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pele27) $387 $2,792 7.22x 2026-11-09 21:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=heatoncs-joker) [M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $387 $35.74 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $382 $740 1.94x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) Hidden $382 $13.81 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $382 $602 1.58x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $382 $740 1.94x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) Hidden $382 $33.28 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $382 $33.28 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $387 $33.20 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $387 $36.54 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) Hidden $384 $6.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,804 (7.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 106.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $106.00 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt