---
title: "HEATONCS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HEATONCS ($25.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 82.00% over 1,212 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HEATONCS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HEATONCS

A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $21.87 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.00% · 1,212 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 36 openings · below min

7 days · 80.70% ±9.19 1,069 openings

30 days · 82.00% ±8.62 1,212 openings

since tracking started · 82.00% ±8.62 1,212 openings

13.5% 64.0% 114.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs?window=24h) | 36 | 64.12% ±49.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs?window=7d) | 1,069 | 80.70% ±9.19 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs) | 1,212 | 82.00% ±8.62 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/heatoncs?window=all) | 1,212 | 82.00% ±8.62 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,212 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,767 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 11,111 | $1,587 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,882 | $744 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $653 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 4,762 | $613 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · gold · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 4,000 | $515 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,704 | $469 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $405 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $366 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · sunny · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,961 | $244 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 1,786 | $222 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $214 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 4,545 | $164 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,439 | $119 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $83.05 | 3.9% | 5 | 12.4 | 0.40× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $67.48 | 4.8% | 11 | 18.7 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $64.58 | 5.0% | 12 | 20.5 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $59.71 | 6.3% | 16 | 28.0 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $42.81 | 7.0% | 20 | 43.4 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $41.80 | 7.2% | 16 | 45.5 | 0.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $37.09 | 1.9% | 19 | 13.3 | 1.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $36.64 | 5.1% | 55 | 37.1 | 1.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $35.79 | 0.8% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $35.65 | 2.4% | 10 | 18.1 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $33.60 | 5.1% | 60 | 40.5 | 1.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $32.16 | 2.7% | 14 | 22.2 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $30.36 | 1.8% | 23 | 15.8 | 1.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $26.64 | 2.4% | 34 | 24.3 | 1.40× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $24.23 | 5.2% | 39 | 56.7 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $22.15 | 2.5% | 27 | 29.7 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 10.4% | $20.79 | 9.9% | 124 | 126.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $20.29 | 2.6% | 14 | 33.5 | 0.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $18.51 | 0.9% | 6 | 13.5 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $16.90 | 1.0% | 6 | 15.6 | 0.38× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 224 | $16.85 | 0.3% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $16.56 | 2.1% | 23 | 32.9 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $14.98 | 1.1% | 13 | 20.0 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $14.63 | 1.1% | 13 | 20.8 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $13.67 | 2.9% | 56 | 57.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $9.23 | 0.4% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $8.79 | 0.5% | 13 | 15.3 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $6.65 | 0.6% | 15 | 24.0 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $5.95 | 0.6% | 23 | 28.6 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $5.84 | 0.7% | 25 | 30.4 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $5.80 | 0.5% | 19 | 24.7 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $5.29 | 0.6% | 13 | 28.6 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $5.04 | 0.6% | 15 | 30.9 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $4.37 | 0.8% | 46 | 46.9 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.74 | 1.1% | 79 | 102.0 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.60 | 1.1% | 66 | 107.7 | 0.61× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/heatoncs`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=heatoncs)

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/1) $25.00 $5.82 0.23x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $36.64 1.47x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/1) $25.00 $5.29 0.21x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) Hidden $25.00 $6.65 0.27x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $5.95 0.24x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $20.29 0.81x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.00 $16.90 0.68x 2026-11-11 05:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $25.00 $3.45 0.14x 2026-11-11 05:15 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $25.00 $2.74 0.11x 2026-11-11 05:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) Hidden $25.00 $5.80 0.23x 2026-11-11 05:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.68% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $25.00 | 87.35% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $25.00 | 87.48% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $25.00 | 87.60% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.93% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $25.00 | 88.01% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $25.00 | 87.77% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.41% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $25.00 | 87.65% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $25.00 | 87.93% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $25.00 | 87.46% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $25.00 | 87.55% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $25.00 | 87.68% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $25.00 | 87.70% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.47% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.00 | 87.74% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.9% legendary 0.0% classified 21.9% gold 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% sunny 0.1% red 7.5% restricted 5.8% industrial 3.3% Mythical 12.5% mil spec 2.0% blue 4.7% uncommon 2.4% Industrial Grade 4.7% Legendary 3.3% pink 5.1% violet 10.9% Classified 2.0% #d32ee6 2.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt