---
title: "HERA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HERA ($1.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 79.01% over 12.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HERA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HERA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera?window=all)

Price · $1.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.09 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.01% · 12.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.98% ±20.70 1,336 openings

7 days · 79.72% ±7.42 10.5K openings

30 days · 79.01% ±6.78 12.5K openings

since tracking started · 79.01% ±6.78 12.5K openings

59.5% 81.0% 102.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.23% – 85.79%, 12,549 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera?window=24h) | 1,336 | 80.98% ±20.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera?window=7d) | 10.5K | 79.72% ±7.42 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera) | 12.5K | 79.01% ±6.78 | −2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hera?window=all) | 12.5K | 79.01% ±6.78 | −2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $588 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 847 | $56.31 | 6.1% | 9 | 14.8 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 813 | $54.24 | 6.1% | 5 | 15.4 | 0.32× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 532 | $35.40 | 6.1% | 25 | 23.6 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $19.46 | 6.1% | 37 | 42.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $9.69 | 6.1% | 59 | 85.8 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $6.76 | 6.1% | 136 | 122.9 | 1.11× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $5.33 | 6.0% | 119 | 155.8 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $5.29 | 6.1% | 149 | 157.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $4.44 | 6.0% | 190 | 187.1 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $3.87 | 6.0% | 195 | 214.6 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $3.08 | 6.0% | 253 | 269.6 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $2.58 | 3.0% | 94 | 157.8 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $2.48 | 3.1% | 108 | 170.7 | 0.63× |
| [Charm \| Magmatude charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-magmatude) | 1 in 33 | $2.19 | 6.0% | 356 | 379.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.36 | 6.0% | 553 | 610.3 | 0.91× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.31 | 6.0% | 634 | 633.7 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.15 | 6.3% | 778 | 751.2 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) | 68.2% | $0.02 | 1.2% | 8,768 | 8562.5 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/hera`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1.25 $601 480.5x 2026-11-06 12:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=hera)

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [ÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%87ORAPHIRSIZI%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) Hidden $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [ÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%87ORAPHIRSIZI%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [5.11](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/5.11) $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) [5.11](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/5.11) $1.25 $1.15 0.92x 2026-11-11 11:57 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [burgir](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/burgir) $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [burgir](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/burgir) $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [burgir](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/burgir) $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [burgir](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/burgir) $1.25 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) [burgir](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/burgir) $1.25 $3.87 3.10x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.25 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.25 | 88.19% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.25 | 88.16% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.25 | 87.64% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.25 | 88.05% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.25 | 88.32% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.25 | 87.94% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.25 | 88.26% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.25 | 87.64% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.25 | 88.02% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.25 | 87.97% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.25 | 88.20% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.25 | 87.92% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.25 | 88.28% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.25 | 88.37% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.25 | 87.66% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.25 | 87.89% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.2% red 0.2% #d32ee6 0.3% violet 13.6% pink 1.0% Legendary 4.0% #8847ff 3.0% restricted 9.5% gray 68.2% best hit $601 (480.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt