--- title: "HOT DAY JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "HOT DAY JOKER ($76.20) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.63% over 380 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T21:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HOT DAY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HOT DAY JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker?window=all) Price · $76.20 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.63% · 380 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 104 openings · below min 7 days · 302 openings · below min 30 days · 380 openings · below min since tracking started · 380 openings · below min 64.5% 121.0% 177.5% **Small sample.** 380 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker?window=24h) | 104 | 126.66% ±50.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker?window=7d) | 302 | 89.79% ±24.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker) | 380 | 85.63% ±20.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day-joker?window=all) | 380 | 85.63% ±20.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $78.03 $780 10.00x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $78.03 $780 10.00x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $78.03 $780 10.00x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.45 $778 10.04x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $770 10.27x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $75.01 $770 10.27x 2026-11-11 09:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $75.01 $770 10.27x 2026-11-10 06:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [YAON JINJI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YAON%20JINJI) $75.01 $770 10.27x 2026-11-09 23:37 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [YAON JINJI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YAON%20JINJI) $75.01 $770 10.27x 2026-11-09 23:37 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [.TiL.\_quot;BiCePs\_quot;](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/.TiL._quot%3BBiCePs_quot%3B) $75.01 $770 10.27x 2026-11-09 22:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=hot-day-joker) [MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $8.36 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $40.66 0.54x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $44.14 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-well-worn) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $2.55 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $6.86 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $8.36 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $0.57 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $23.00 0.31x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $8.36 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $75.01 $44.14 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $780 (10.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.63 on average: an expected loss of $14.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt