---
title: "HOT DAY case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HOT DAY ($4.15) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 84.40% over 10.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HOT DAY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HOT DAY

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day?window=all)

Price · $4.15

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.63 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.40% · 10.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.99% ±9.49 1,615 openings

7 days · 84.51% ±4.16 8,424 openings

30 days · 84.40% ±3.70 10.6K openings

since tracking started · 84.40% ±3.70 10.6K openings

72.0% 82.0% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day?window=24h) | 1,615 | 81.99% ±9.49 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day?window=7d) | 8,424 | 84.51% ±4.16 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day) | 10.6K | 84.40% ±3.70 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-day?window=all) | 10.6K | 84.40% ±3.70 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $774 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $424 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $360 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $153 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $86.28 | 1.2% | 1 | 5.3 | 0.19× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $54.24 | 1.2% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $43.45 | 1.2% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $42.81 | 1.2% | 5 | 10.6 | 0.47× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $23.44 | 1.2% | 17 | 19.1 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $23.00 | 1.2% | 15 | 20.1 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $16.85 | 0.2% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $16.70 | 0.2% | 16 | 5.3 | 3.02× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $14.59 | 1.8% | 41 | 47.7 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $12.03 | 4.4% | 114 | 140.0 | 0.81× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $10.78 | 7.5% | 139 | 269.3 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $10.77 | 3.5% | 43 | 125.1 | 0.34× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $10.24 | 2.6% | 59 | 96.5 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| The End (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-well-worn) | 1 in 149 | $9.60 | 1.8% | 71 | 71.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $9.32 | 1.8% | 48 | 75.3 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $8.68 | 1.9% | 49 | 85.9 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $8.47 | 0.9% | 23 | 39.2 | 0.59× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $8.41 | 5.0% | 216 | 228.0 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $8.29 | 2.0% | 51 | 94.4 | 0.54× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $7.89 | 1.1% | 43 | 53.0 | 0.81× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $6.93 | 2.4% | 95 | 135.7 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $6.76 | 1.8% | 74 | 101.8 | 0.73× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $6.70 | 2.5% | 78 | 145.3 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $6.65 | 1.7% | 56 | 98.6 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $5.81 | 2.0% | 85 | 133.6 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $5.77 | 0.9% | 38 | 57.3 | 0.66× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $5.71 | 1.5% | 74 | 98.6 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $5.59 | 1.3% | 36 | 88.0 | 0.41× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $5.50 | 1.4% | 67 | 95.4 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $5.30 | 1.3% | 53 | 97.6 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $5.16 | 1.4% | 67 | 102.9 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $4.76 | 4.9% | 334 | 392.3 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $4.70 | 1.8% | 93 | 145.3 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $4.37 | 2.5% | 151 | 222.7 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $4.33 | 1.7% | 95 | 154.8 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $4.30 | 1.8% | 90 | 156.9 | 0.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $3.94 | 1.1% | 79 | 111.3 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $3.71 | 1.2% | 91 | 125.1 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $3.47 | 1.2% | 97 | 137.9 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $2.51 | 3.5% | 525 | 536.6 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $2.11 | 1.0% | 120 | 181.3 | 0.66× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $2.04 | 1.0% | 107 | 189.8 | 0.56× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 18 | $1.89 | 2.9% | 594 | 600.2 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $1.86 | 1.0% | 155 | 216.3 | 0.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.22 | 2.3% | 708 | 715.8 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.00 | 2.0% | 795 | 774.1 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.00 | 2.0% | 811 | 774.1 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.85 | 1.8% | 846 | 827.1 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.82 | 1.8% | 876 | 838.8 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.63 | 1.5% | 999 | 936.3 | 1.07× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/hot-day`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) [Brzo Trci Pavke](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Brzo%20Trci%20Pavke) $4.15 $396 95.36x 2026-11-06 13:33 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) [Brzo Trci Pavke](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Brzo%20Trci%20Pavke) $4.15 $396 95.36x 2026-11-06 13:32 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $4.15 $372 89.59x 2026-11-03 20:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=hot-day)

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.15 $11.42 2.75x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.15 $4.59 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) Hidden $4.15 $1.87 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $4.15 $1.18 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $4.15 $0.85 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [\_Ruizago\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_Ruizago_) $4.15 $1.00 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $4.15 $1.22 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [\_Ruizago\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_Ruizago_) $4.15 $1.00 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [legenda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/legenda) $4.15 $0.88 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [\_Ruizago\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_Ruizago_) $4.15 $0.98 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.15 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.15 | 87.57% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.15 | 87.42% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.15 | 87.57% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.15 | 87.41% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.15 | 87.45% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.15 | 87.57% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.15 | 87.54% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.15 | 87.30% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.15 | 87.34% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.15 | 87.53% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.15 | 87.31% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.15 | 87.37% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.15 | 87.41% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.15 | 87.42% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.15 | 87.71% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.15 | 87.73% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% restricted 7.3% legendary 0.0% covert 0.2% rare 0.2% red 0.1% classified 1.1% uncommon 3.8% #d32ce6 1.0% Legendary 0.4% pink 26.6% #8847ff 3.2% Mythical 1.3% violet 31.9% gray 15.6% mil spec 7.3% best hit $396 (95.36x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt