--- title: "HOT PIE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "HOT PIE JOKER ($112.43) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.19% over 4,436 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HOT PIE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HOT PIE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker?window=all) Price · $112.43 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.19% · 4,436 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.38% ±9.88 1,402 openings 7 days · 85.19% ±5.45 4,436 openings 30 days · 85.19% ±5.45 4,436 openings since tracking started · 85.19% ±5.45 4,436 openings 76.0% 86.5% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker?window=24h) | 1,402 | 86.38% ±9.88 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker?window=7d) | 4,436 | 85.19% ±5.45 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker) | 4,436 | 85.19% ±5.45 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie-joker?window=all) | 4,436 | 85.19% ±5.45 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [BOT DeMon](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BOT%20DeMon) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [TeNSe^^](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TeNSe%5E%5E) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [CTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CTS) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [CTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CTS) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [CTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CTS) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 04:31 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Neo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Neo) $112 $934 8.31x 2026-11-11 00:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=hot-pie-joker) [AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [hoolywrath](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hoolywrath) $112 $5.49 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [hoolywrath](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hoolywrath) $111 $5.31 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $111 $925 8.35x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) Hidden $111 $3.61 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $111 $403 3.64x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [AWP | Crakow! weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $112 $23.22 0.21x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $112 $1.89 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [Sticker | Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $112 $3.84 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $112 $16.76 0.15x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $112 $1.89 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $934 (8.31x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.19 on average: an expected loss of $14.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt