---
title: "HOT PIE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HOT PIE ($5.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 85.21% over 59.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HOT PIE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HOT PIE

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.37 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.21% · 59.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.77% ±2.20 27.6K openings

7 days · 85.21% ±1.51 59.9K openings

30 days · 85.21% ±1.51 59.9K openings

since tracking started · 85.21% ±1.51 59.9K openings

83.0% 85.8% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.89% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.70% – 86.71%, 59,920 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie?window=24h) | 27.6K | 85.77% ±2.20 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie?window=7d) | 59.9K | 85.21% ±1.51 | −3.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie) | 59.9K | 85.21% ±1.51 | −3.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hot-pie?window=all) | 59.9K | 85.21% ±1.51 | −3.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 33,333 | $934 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $556 | 0.9% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $393 | 0.9% | 1 | 6.6 | 0.15× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $312 | 0.7% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $132 | 0.6% | 10 | 13.1 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $81.30 | 0.2% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $58.10 | 0.1% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.18 | 0.1% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.10 | 0.1% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $52.50 | 0.1% | 2 | 6.6 | 0.31× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $43.99 | 0.1% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $41.56 | 0.1% | 1 | 6.6 | 0.15× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $33.91 | 0.1% | 1 | 6.6 | 0.15× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $31.79 | 0.1% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $27.90 | 0.1% | 6 | 13.1 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $26.52 | 0.3% | 33 | 32.8 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $22.76 | 0.8% | 75 | 104.9 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $22.06 | 0.3% | 29 | 32.8 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $20.25 | 0.2% | 18 | 32.8 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $19.34 | 0.3% | 26 | 45.9 | 0.57× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-well-worn) | 1 in 244 | $15.69 | 1.5% | 175 | 268.8 | 0.65× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $14.95 | 1.5% | 185 | 295.0 | 0.63× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $14.00 | 4.1% | 860 | 839.2 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $10.27 | 9.8% | 2,655 | 2747.1 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $10.13 | 9.8% | 2,668 | 2779.9 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $7.44 | 5.2% | 2,088 | 2006.3 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $6.84 | 5.2% | 2,116 | 2183.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $5.80 | 2.5% | 768 | 1226.0 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $5.29 | 2.7% | 880 | 1475.2 | 0.60× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $5.13 | 5.2% | 2,813 | 2911.0 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.82 | 7.1% | 4,159 | 4222.3 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.15 | 2.9% | 1,380 | 2012.8 | 0.69× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) | 1 in 14 | $3.96 | 6.3% | 4,494 | 4550.1 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.40 | 3.1% | 1,604 | 2655.3 | 0.60× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.70 | 5.0% | 5,358 | 5304.1 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.49 | 4.8% | 5,257 | 5474.6 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.43 | 4.7% | 5,445 | 5533.6 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.96 | 4.1% | 6,177 | 6025.3 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 11 | $1.89 | 4.0% | 6,455 | 6117.1 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) | 10.0% | $1.56 | 3.6% | 6,824 | 6582.6 | 1.04× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/hot-pie`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $5.00 $934 186.8x 2026-11-10 15:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $585 116.9x 2026-11-09 19:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $557 111.3x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) [H U N T E R](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/H%20U%20N%20T%20E%20R) $5.00 $556 111.3x 2026-11-10 21:06 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) [H U N T E R](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/H%20U%20N%20T%20E%20R) $5.00 $556 111.3x 2026-11-10 21:05 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5.00 $393 78.52x 2026-11-09 14:31 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $5.00 $324 64.88x 2026-11-10 09:31 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) [Mr.C](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mr.C) $5.00 $324 64.88x 2026-11-09 21:04 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) [Mr.C](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mr.C) $5.00 $324 64.88x 2026-11-09 21:04 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $324 64.88x 2026-11-09 09:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=hot-pie)

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [cs.antaal](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/cs.antaal) $5.00 $1.89 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) [cs.antaal](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/cs.antaal) $5.00 $2.43 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $10.03 2.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $2.40 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) Hidden $5.00 $6.90 1.38x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [cs.antaal](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/cs.antaal) $5.00 $1.87 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) [cs.antaal](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/cs.antaal) $5.00 $2.40 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) Hidden $5.00 $1.62 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $9.77 1.95x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $5.07 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.90% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $5.00 | 88.00% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 88.11% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% restricted 0.0% gold 0.0% sunny 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.1% rare 0.1% pink 17.4% violet 21.6% Legendary 2.3% uncommon 0.1% classified 1.3% Mil Spec Grade 4.2% blue 18.7% Classified 1.9% gray 15.6% consumer 16.8% best hit $934 (186.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt