---
title: "HYPER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HYPER ($0.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 81.29% over 82.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [HYPER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · HYPER

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2?window=all)

Price · $0.80

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.70 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.29% · 82.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.80% ±4.88 10.3K openings

7 days · 81.63% ±1.92 69.7K openings

30 days · 81.29% ±1.77 82.4K openings

since tracking started · 81.29% ±1.77 82.4K openings

76.5% 82.5% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.74% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.52% – 83.06%, 82,402 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2?window=24h) | 10.3K | 81.80% ±4.88 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2?window=7d) | 69.7K | 81.63% ±1.92 | −6.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2) | 82.4K | 81.29% ±1.77 | −7.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/hyper-2?window=all) | 82.4K | 81.29% ±1.77 | −7.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $418 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $216 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $144 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $73.13 | 0.5% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $35.40 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $33.91 | 0.4% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,778 | $9.66 | 0.5% | 19 | 29.8 | 0.64× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $7.89 | 0.5% | 10 | 34.0 | 0.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,299 | $6.54 | 0.7% | 36 | 63.8 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $5.29 | 1.2% | 100 | 131.7 | 0.76× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 893 | $4.70 | 0.8% | 43 | 92.8 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 1,010 | $4.09 | 0.6% | 36 | 82.0 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 855 | $3.76 | 0.6% | 117 | 96.9 | 1.21× |
| [P90 \| Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.14 | 26.5% | 6,404 | 7188.2 | 0.89× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.00 | 11.1% | 5,683 | 6444.4 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.54 | 3.3% | 1,415 | 3502.2 | 0.40× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.50 | 3.5% | 1,867 | 4084.5 | 0.46× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.50 | 6.8% | 7,577 | 7865.8 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.50 | 2.1% | 980 | 2442.7 | 0.40× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.45 | 2.3% | 1,310 | 3015.1 | 0.43× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.45 | 2.3% | 1,380 | 3014.3 | 0.46× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.45 | 6.8% | 8,742 | 8739.7 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.45 | 6.8% | 8,673 | 8739.7 | 0.99× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.44 | 6.8% | 9,273 | 8938.5 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.44 | 6.8% | 9,758 | 8938.5 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 11.3% | $0.42 | 6.8% | 10,114 | 9364.3 | 1.08× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/hyper-2`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 $78.64 98.30x 2026-11-08 13:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=hyper-2)

[P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) [♛DenniX♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9BDenniX%E2%99%9B) $0.80 $0.42 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) [♛DenniX♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9BDenniX%E2%99%9B) $0.80 $0.41 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-well-worn) Hidden $0.80 $0.42 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.80 $0.98 1.22x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 $0.44 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [Pristo\_Baby skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pristo_Baby%20skins) $0.80 $0.44 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [Pristo\_Baby skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pristo_Baby%20skins) $0.80 $0.44 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[P90 | Wave Breaker weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker) [Pristo\_Baby skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pristo_Baby%20skins) $0.80 $0.52 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) [Pristo\_Baby skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pristo_Baby%20skins) $0.80 $2.14 2.68x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) [g3g4\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/g3g4_) $0.80 $0.45 0.56x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.80 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.80 | 88.39% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.80 | 87.99% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.80 | 88.37% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.80 | 87.94% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.80 | 87.27% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.80 | 87.72% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.80 | 88.31% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.80 | 87.33% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.80 | 86.93% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.80 | 86.97% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.80 | 87.32% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.80 | 88.22% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.80 | 87.72% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.80 | 87.31% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.80 | 87.86% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 88.36% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 0.2% uncommon 0.2% #d32ee6 0.1% pink 0.2% blue 8.7% violet 90.7% best hit $78.64 (98.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt