---
title: "ICE BLAST case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ICE BLAST ($0.32) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 81.58% over 45.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ICE BLAST](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ICE BLAST

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast?window=all)

Price · $0.32

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.28 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.58% · 45.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.86% ±3.19 4,735 openings

7 days · 81.99% ±1.12 38.4K openings

30 days · 81.58% ±1.03 45.8K openings

since tracking started · 81.58% ±1.03 45.8K openings

79.0% 83.5% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.55% – 82.61%, 45,758 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast?window=24h) | 4,735 | 82.86% ±3.19 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast?window=7d) | 38.4K | 81.99% ±1.12 | −9.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast) | 45.8K | 81.58% ±1.03 | −11.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ice-blast?window=all) | 45.8K | 81.58% ±1.03 | −11.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $20.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $8.79 | 0.2% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $5.63 | 0.6% | 5 | 13.7 | 0.36× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $4.30 | 0.9% | 11 | 27.5 | 0.40× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $3.08 | 2.7% | 57 | 114.5 | 0.50× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $2.96 | 2.7% | 77 | 119.1 | 0.65× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $2.45 | 2.8% | 129 | 146.6 | 0.88× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $1.72 | 2.8% | 259 | 206.1 | 1.26× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $1.56 | 2.7% | 284 | 224.4 | 1.27× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.77 | 7.1% | 534 | 1186.3 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.45 | 3.3% | 441 | 943.5 | 0.47× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.45 | 7.1% | 1,814 | 2029.0 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $0.39 | 3.8% | 524 | 1255.0 | 0.42× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.35 | 7.1% | 1,582 | 2610.7 | 0.61× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.32 | 7.1% | 4,236 | 2853.5 | 1.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.27 | 7.9% | 1,548 | 3760.3 | 0.41× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.27 | 7.9% | 1,937 | 3746.6 | 0.52× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 6.6% | 2,632 | 4053.5 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.17 | 5.7% | 5,763 | 4319.1 | 1.33× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.17 | 5.7% | 5,066 | 4319.1 | 1.17× |
| [Sticker \| Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) | 1 in 10 | $0.15 | 5.2% | 5,206 | 4484.0 | 1.16× |
| [Sticker \| Evil Geniuses \| 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) | 1 in 10 | $0.14 | 5.0% | 3,581 | 4575.6 | 0.78× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $0.12 | 4.5% | 6,373 | 4809.2 | 1.33× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/ice-blast`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ice-blast)

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [kinguare](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kinguare) $0.32 $0.45 1.41x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) [bbermuudz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/bbermuudz) $0.32 $1.72 5.38x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-minimal-wear) [♰zyvn14y♰](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%B0zyvn14y%E2%99%B0) $0.32 $0.35 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Sticker | Boom Trail sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boom-trail) [bbermuudz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/bbermuudz) $0.32 $0.15 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Sticker | Evil Geniuses | 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) [bbermuudz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/bbermuudz) $0.32 $0.14 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [bbermuudz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/bbermuudz) $0.32 $0.12 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[Sticker | Evil Geniuses | 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) [berrondollino](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/berrondollino) $0.32 $0.14 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [berrondollino](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/berrondollino) $0.32 $0.12 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) [berrondollino](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/berrondollino) $0.32 $0.17 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | Evil Geniuses | 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) [berrondollino](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/berrondollino) $0.32 $0.14 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.32 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.32 | 87.35% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.32 | 86.96% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.32 | 86.67% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.32 | 87.72% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.32 | 87.83% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.32 | 86.95% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.32 | 86.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.32 | 87.75% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.32 | 86.46% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.32 | 87.48% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.32 | 87.37% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.32 | 88.40% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.32 | 88.26% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.32 | 87.80% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.32 | 87.94% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.32 | 88.22% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 1.6% #8847ff 0.3% violet 31.6% blue 48.9% light blue 8.2% Rare 9.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt