--- title: "IM BACK JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "IM BACK JOKER ($135.21) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.44% over 1,045 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [IM BACK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · IM BACK JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker?window=all) Price · $135.21 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.44% · 1,045 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 191 openings · below min 7 days · 936 openings · below min 30 days · 86.44% ±19.66 1,045 openings since tracking started · 86.44% ±19.66 1,045 openings 34.0% 81.3% 128.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker?window=24h) | 191 | 81.31% ±46.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker?window=7d) | 936 | 85.70% ±20.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker) | 1,045 | 86.44% ±19.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/im-back-joker?window=all) | 1,045 | 86.44% ±19.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $135 $2,362 17.47x 2026-11-02 22:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $135 $2,362 17.47x 2026-11-02 22:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $133 $2,323 17.41x 2026-11-04 03:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $134 $2,323 17.40x 2026-11-03 10:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [YT: Yoko04p](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YT%3A%20Yoko04p) $133 $2,321 17.45x 2026-11-08 15:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [YT: Yoko04p](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YT%3A%20Yoko04p) $133 $2,321 17.45x 2026-11-08 15:27 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [YT: Yoko04p](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YT%3A%20Yoko04p) $133 $2,321 17.45x 2026-11-08 15:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [YT: Yoko04p](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YT%3A%20Yoko04p) $133 $2,321 17.45x 2026-11-08 15:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [YT: Yoko04p](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/YT%3A%20Yoko04p) $133 $2,321 17.45x 2026-11-08 15:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Crimson](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Crimson) $133 $2,321 17.45x 2026-11-05 21:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=im-back-joker) [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $125 $5.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $125 $5.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $122 $5.32 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $122 $2.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) Hidden $122 $5.32 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $122 $43.07 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) Hidden $122 $0.98 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $122 $0.94 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $122 $5.32 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $122 $0.94 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,362 (17.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.44 on average: an expected loss of $13.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt